国泰君安期货-LLDPE：短期偏强，中期震荡市

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - LLDPE is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [1] - Due to the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, the cost of polyethylene has increased, making its price strong in the short - term. There may be import disturbances as Iran's polyethylene imports accounted for 9.6% (133.02 million tons) of the total in 2024 [2] - In the 09 contract of 2025, the new domestic PE device capacity is expected to be 2.05 billion tons, with high supply pressure. Although there are many overhauls in June, the high - production pattern remains unchanged. Demand is weakening, and downstream factories' continuous restocking is insufficient to drive significant destocking of polyethylene [2] - Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - pressure and linear polyethylene. As HDPE inventory has been declining and is lower than the same period, the HD - LL price difference has widened, and there may be a capacity switch between the two. Some device conversions have occurred, which may relieve the LLDPE supply pressure [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of L2509 was 7258, up 1.88% from the previous day. The trading volume was 662,862, and the open interest decreased by 35,348 [1] - Basis and spread: The basis of the 09 contract was - 108, and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 29 [1] - Spot prices: In North China, it was 7150 yuan/ton; in East China, 7180 yuan/ton; in South China, 7450 yuan/ton, all higher than the previous day [1] Spot News - The LLDPE market price increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. International oil prices rose, driving up plastic futures. Petrochemical ex - factory prices mostly increased, and traders raised prices. However, downstream demand was weak, and the trading atmosphere was poor [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macro: The conflict between Israel and Iran led to a sharp rebound in crude oil prices, raising the cost of polyethylene [2] - Supply and demand: High supply pressure with new capacity in 2025. Demand in the agricultural film sector is in the off - season, and the packaging film demand is average. Downstream restocking is not strong enough [2] - Capacity switch: The HD - LL price difference has widened, and some devices have switched production. If the trend continues, LLDPE supply pressure may ease [2] Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3]