Citi(US:C)2025-06-16 03:16Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for China's exports to the US, particularly following the Geneva deal, which is expected to provide some relief for direct exports [1][2]. Core Insights - China's containership departures for the US have shown year-on-year growth, with a 0.8% increase in the 15 days ending June 11, approaching previous peak levels [2][15]. - Overall cargo throughput in China weakened in June, with a reported growth of only 0.8% year-on-year for the week ending June 8, down from 4.8% the previous week [3][6]. - Container export volume also moderated to 6.4% year-on-year in the week ending June 6, a decrease from double-digit growth a week prior [3][11]. - The US import bills from China for seaborne routes have stabilized, showing a contraction of -38.9% year-on-year for the week ending June 8, an improvement from -45.2% the previous week [2][9]. Summary by Sections Export Trends - Containership departures for the US recorded a year-on-year growth of 0.8% in the 15 days ending June 11, indicating a rebound in shipments [2][15]. - The Geneva deal is anticipated to enhance direct exports to the US, especially as transshipment becomes less feasible [1][2]. Cargo Throughput - Overall cargo throughput reported by China's Ministry of Transport expanded by only 0.8% year-on-year in the week ending June 8, marking the slowest growth since mid-April [3][6]. - The base effect is expected to further weigh on cargo throughput growth as the month progresses [3]. Container Export Volume - Container export volume reported by PortWatch/IMF moderated to 6.4% year-on-year in the week ending June 6, down from 11.6% the previous week [3][11]. - Container ship arrivals at ASEAN ports appear to be stabilizing, reflecting broader trends in regional shipping dynamics [3].