摩根大通：美国_2025 年中期经济展望

Our 2025 year-ahead outlook built off two propositions: momentum in the business cycle at the turn of the year was solid, and policy risks were bidirectional. In the subsequent six months that solid momentum has continued, with steady growth in jobs and spending. And as we have gotten more clarity on policy it has been a mixed bag, as expected, but we think tilting in a less growth-friendly way. Most notably, tar- iffs and trade policy have been the biggest driver of our fore- cast revisions. The stagflatio ...