高盛：中国交通运输业_伊朗石油供应潜在中断的影响 -航空公司燃油成本上升及合规油轮船队需求增加

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the transportation sector or specific companies within it Core Insights - The Brent oil price has increased by 12% to $74/bbl due to geopolitical tensions, with a forecasted decline to $59 in Q4 2025 and $56 in 2026, assuming no disruptions in oil supply [1][7] - A potential drop in Iranian oil supply by 1.75mb/d could lead to Brent prices peaking over $90/bbl before declining back to the $60s as supply recovers [1][8] - The transportation sector, particularly tankers and airlines, may experience significant impacts from fluctuating oil prices and geopolitical risks [1][2] Tankers - Iranian oil constitutes 3% of global oil production; a reduction in this supply could shift 0.8-1.5% of global ocean tanker demand from shadow fleets to compliant fleets, potentially benefiting companies like COSCO Shipping Energy [1][21] - The report anticipates an upside in shipping rates and share prices for compliant tanker fleets due to the expected shift in demand [1] Airlines - Airlines are highly sensitive to oil price changes, with China Southern Airlines showing a 22% earnings downside per 1% increase in oil price, followed by China Eastern Airlines and Air China at 17% and 10% respectively [5][17] - Despite short-term pressures on earnings due to rising fuel costs, long-term demand for air travel is expected to remain stable, provided there are no widespread concerns over aircraft safety [5][17] - The report maintains a bearish medium-term outlook on Brent oil prices, forecasting $66 in 2025 and $56 in 2026, which could alleviate some pressure on airline earnings in the longer term [5][7]