宝城期货国债期货早报-20250616

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is "sideways". In the short - term (within a week), they are expected to move sideways; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), also sideways; and intraday, they are expected to be slightly bullish [1][5]. - The core logic is that macroeconomic indicators have weakened, and the Sino - US economic and trade consultations have not achieved substantial progress, with high uncertainty remaining, which disturbs external demand. The market's expectation of monetary easing has increased, and the downside risk of Treasury bond futures is low. However, the possibility of continuous interest rate cuts in the short - term to boost demand is not high [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "slightly bullish", and the overall view is "sideways". The core logic is the weakening of macroeconomic indicators [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "slightly bullish", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "sideways". The core logic is that last Friday, Treasury bond futures continued to trade in a narrow range. Sino - US economic and trade consultations had no substantial progress, and external demand is disturbed. Domestic macroeconomic indicators have weakened, increasing the expectation of monetary easing. The short - term possibility of continuous interest rate cuts is low. In the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly move sideways, and attention should be paid to the financial policy guidance at the Lujiazui Forum on June 18 [5].