工业硅：空配思路为主，多晶硅：现货弱势，盘面具下行驱动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short allocation is the main strategy [1] - Polysilicon: Spot prices are weak, and the futures market has a downward driving force [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a detailed analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, prices, profits, inventory, raw material costs, etc. It also mentions relevant macro and industry news and gives the trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For industrial silicon, the Si2507 closing price was 7,345 yuan/ton, with a change of -110 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 370,370 lots, and the open interest was 103,689 lots. For polysilicon, the PS2507 closing price was 33,695 yuan/ton, with a change of 110 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 82,151 lots, and the open interest was 56,863 lots [1] - Basis: Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount varied depending on the benchmark. For example, the premium for East China Si5530 was +665 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot premium for N - type re - investment was - 690 yuan/ton [1] - Prices: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 8,150 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 9,900 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon N - type re - investment material was 35,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton compared to T - 1 [1] - Profits: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 3,771 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 6,936 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 5.0 yuan/kg [1] - Inventory: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 57.2 million tons, and the enterprise inventory was 23.6 million tons. The total industry inventory was 80.8 million tons. The warehouse receipt inventory was 29.0 million tons. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 27.5 million tons [1] - Raw Material Costs: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 385 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 360 yuan/ton. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,290 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was 900 yuan/ton. Other raw materials like petroleum coke, electrodes also had their respective prices and price changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Zhangye Economic Development Zone is committed to ensuring the construction of major projects. The Gansu Heihe Silicon - based New Material Comprehensive Utilization Project, with a total investment of 2.063 billion yuan, is expected to achieve an industrial output value of 2.94 billion yuan, produce 170,000 tons of silicon - based materials, pay taxes of 86.3265 million yuan, and provide more than 800 jobs after completion [3] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is also - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3]