商品风格轮动周报：地缘冲突驱动市场重回避险交易-20250616

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week of June 13, 2025, the top - rising commodities were concentrated in energy products, while the top - falling ones were in non - ferrous metals and the building materials chain. The style rotation showed multiple configurations in Nanhua industrial products in the industrial products/agricultural products and precious metals/industrial products styles, and long on oil in the gold/oil ratio. The strength order of commodity sectors was estimated as energy > precious metals > chemicals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > ferrous metals [1][2]. - Overseas, at the beginning of the week, the market continued to price the easing of Sino - US trade relations, but the Middle - East geopolitical conflict flared up again. Domestically, the inflation and financial data in May were below expectations, with weak imports and strong exports [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Commodity Market Performance - As of June 13, 2025, the top - rising domestic commodities were INE crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., while the top - falling ones were soda ash, urea, zinc, etc. [6] 3.2 Sector Style Rotation - The 10 - year US Treasury yield, as a global interest - rate anchor, has a significant guiding effect on asset valuation and style rotation. For equity index styles, its real yield is consistent with the long - term trend of the ratio of the growth index to the cyclical index. For commodity sector index styles, it is also consistent with the long - term trend of the ratio of the Nanhua precious metals index to the Nanhua industrial products index [8][13]. - During the week, the cycle/growth style rotated to under - allocate growth; the industrial products/agricultural products style rotated to over - allocate Nanhua industrial products; the precious metals/industrial products style rotated to over - allocate Nanhua industrial products; and the gold/oil ratio rotated to over - allocate oil [2][13]. 3.3 Performance of Arbitrage Spread Pairs - The three arbitrage pairs with the relatively strongest performance during the week were the spread of the PP - 3*MA main contract, the spread of the L - PP main contract, and the spread of the rapeseed oil - palm oil main contract. The three with the relatively weakest performance were the copper - oil main contract ratio, the P/SC main contract ratio, and the Y/SC main contract ratio [2][14]. - Data on the latest values, weekly changes, one - year valuations, and two - year valuations of various arbitrage pairs are provided in the report [15].