华润啤酒（00291）：业绩修复明确，估值具备吸引力

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Resources Beer Holdings [2][7] Core Views - The company is experiencing a clear earnings recovery with attractive valuation, supported by a strong premiumization strategy and cost optimization efforts [1][4][6] - The target price has been adjusted to HK$36 from HK$48, reflecting a 20x PE for 2025 [7][16] Summary by Sections Beer Business - The company is focusing on premiumization and cost optimization, with a clear growth momentum in the peak season. The "Three Refinements" strategy has led to the closure of inefficient factories and a reduction in sales and administrative expense ratios [4][13] - Despite a 2.5% YoY decline in beer sales volume due to weak catering demand and adverse weather, premium products saw over 9% growth, with Heineken's sales growing nearly 20% [4][13] - The beer gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 41.1%, driven by a 1.5% increase in average selling price [4][13] Baijiu Business - The baijiu segment is led by the "Zhaiyao" product, which achieved a 35% YoY volume growth in 2024, contributing over 70% of baijiu revenue [5][14] - The company is focusing on core market strategies in regions like Henan and Shandong to accelerate the national expansion of "Zhaiyao" [5][14] 2025 Outlook - The outlook for 2025 indicates improved beer sales and profitability, driven by favorable weather conditions and new production capacity in Fujian [6][15] - The company aims for a beer gross margin of over 42% in 2025, supported by cost reductions and enhanced channel collaboration [6][15] Financial Performance - The report projects revenue growth from RMB 38.635 billion in 2024 to RMB 40 billion in 2025, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 4.739 billion to RMB 5.288 billion [2][12] - The diluted EPS is forecasted to increase from RMB 1.46 in 2024 to RMB 1.63 in 2025, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [2][12]