贵金属日评：关税仍未显著推升美国生产通胀，以色列空袭伊朗牵动地缘风险-20250616

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Tariff policies have not pushed up inflation at the production and consumption ends, leading to an increase in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Coupled with continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to go long on dips [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - Shanghai Gold: The closing price was 780.36 yuan/gram, with a change of 10.50 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 21,494.00, and the open interest was 223,738.00 [1]. - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 8,793.00 yuan/kg, with a change of 23.00 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 805,092.00, and the open interest was 3,525,006.00 [1]. - COMEX Gold Futures: The closing price was 3,452.60 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 46.20 US dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 224,107.00, and the open interest was 322,266.00 [1]. - COMEX Silver Futures: The closing price was 36.37 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.57 US dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 72,692.00, and the open interest was 93,632.00 [1]. 2. Important Information - Geopolitical Tensions: Iran and Israel have engaged in continuous mutual attacks, with the conflict expanding to oil and gas facilities. Iran is considering whether to block the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - Trade Agreements: The UK Prime Minister said there are no "obstacles" to finalizing a US-UK trade agreement. The US and Japan agreed to accelerate ministerial consultations to reach a mutually beneficial agreement, and the US and Vietnam are close to reaching a framework trade agreement [1]. - Economic Data: In May, the US added 139,000 non-farm payrolls, higher than expected but lower than the previous value. The annual average hourly wage rate was 3.9%, higher than expected and the previous value. In June, the US consumer inflation rate was 2.4%, lower than expected but higher than the previous value [1]. 3. Central Bank Policies - Federal Reserve: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September or December due to the lack of inflation rebound caused by tariff policies [1]. - European Central Bank: In June, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market expects one more rate cut by the end of 2025 [1]. - Bank of England: In May, the BoE cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points, and the market expects two more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - Bank of Japan: In January, the BoJ raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market expects a rate hike around July [1]. 4. Trading Strategies Investors are advised to go long on dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 and the resistance level around 840 - 900. For London silver, focus on the support level around 31 - 34 and the resistance level around 38 - 40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,300 - 8,500 and the resistance level around 9,500 - 10,000 [1].