宝城期货资讯早班车-20250616

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The financial data in May is reasonably matched with the real - economy operation. The growth rates of social financing scale, M2, and RMB loans are significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, and the overall financial support for the real economy remains stable. Fiscal and industrial policies work together with monetary policy to promote economic recovery [2][14]. - The real - estate market continues to consolidate its stabilization and recovery trend. The State Council Executive Meeting proposes to optimize policies and promote the real - estate market to stop falling and recover [13]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel intensifies, impacting the global market. Global funds are flowing into the crude - oil market, and the trading volume of US crude - oil options has soared [6]. - In the bond market, the Chinese bond market shows a slightly strong and volatile trend. The yields of most major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market decline, and the yields of European and US bonds generally rise [20][23][24]. - In the stock market, short - term events may provide investment opportunities. After sentiment recovery, internal factors will determine the market trend. The pan - technology direction and Hong Kong stocks are favored [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP in Q1 2025 had a year - on - year growth rate of 5.4%, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up from the previous month but the same as the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, slightly down from the previous month and lower than the same period last year. - In April 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 1.5%, and 8.0% respectively, with M0 and M2 increasing compared to the previous month and the same period last year, while M1 decreased slightly compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The financial data in May is reasonably matched with the real - economy operation, and the financial support for the real economy remains stable [2]. - The CSRC solicits public opinions on the "Regulations on the Classification and Evaluation of Futures Companies (Draft for Comment)", optimizing the evaluation criteria and process [2]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange reminds investors to prevent risks and maintain market stability [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - Since 2025, the international gold price has risen rapidly. In May, the price fluctuated greatly, and recently it has risen again due to geopolitical tensions. The domestic gold - jewelry price has also started to rise [3]. - In May 2025, global physical gold ETFs had an outflow of about $1.8 billion, ending five consecutive months of inflows [3]. - As of June 12, the inventories of various metals on the London Metal Exchange, such as tin, copper, and aluminum, decreased to varying degrees [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that central - bank gold purchases will drive the gold price to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid - 2026 [4]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of early June 2025, the circulation - field price of coke and rebar decreased month - on - month, with the coke price hitting a record low [5]. - Dundee Precious Metals will acquire silver - mine producer Adriatic Metals for about $1.251 billion [5]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Kuwait sets different prices for its crude oil sold to different regions in July [6]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel intensifies, and global funds are flowing into the crude - oil market. The trading volume of US crude - oil options has soared [6]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of June 15, the sales volume and price of live pigs of some listed breeding companies decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [8]. - The national summer - sown grain progress is over half, faster than in previous years [8]. - As of early June 2025, most agricultural - product prices in the national circulation field decreased, with the price of soybean meal hitting a new low since July 2020, while the price of soybeans increased [8][9]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 182 billion yuan of MLFs will mature. Last week, the central bank conducted 858.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan in the open market [10][11]. - On June 13, the central bank conducted 202.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, with a net injection of 6.75 billion yuan [11]. 3.3.2 Important News - The article by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes the importance of formulating and implementing medium - and long - term plans for economic and social development [12]. - The real - estate market continues to consolidate its stabilization and recovery trend. The State Council Executive Meeting proposes to optimize policies to promote the real - estate market to stop falling and recover [13]. - The central bank will conduct 40 billion yuan of outright reverse - repurchases on June 16, providing medium - term liquidity support [15]. - Iran and Israel launch a new round of military strikes against each other, and China urges both sides to resolve disputes through dialogue [15][16]. - The central bank renews the bilateral local - currency swap agreement with the Central Bank of Turkey, and the total scale of swap agreements with other countries and regions reaches about 4.5 trillion yuan [16]. - Shanghai encourages state - owned and private enterprises to cooperate and develop a mixed - ownership economy [17]. - Hong Kong has become a safe haven for international funds, and the Hong Kong dollar will maintain the linked - exchange - rate system [18]. - Guangzhou proposes to reduce consumption restrictions and optimize real - estate policies [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market shows a slightly strong and volatile trend. The yields of most major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market decline, and the yields of European and US bonds generally rise [20][23][24]. - The prices of some bonds in the exchange - bond market rise and fall, and the convertible - bond index generally declines [21]. - The yields of national bonds and policy - bank bonds in the primary market are determined, and the repurchase - fixed - rate in the inter - bank market mostly rises [22]. 3.3.4 Foreign - Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rises, and the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar is raised. The US dollar index rises, and most non - US currencies fall [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huachuang Securities believes that the short - end bond market may be boosted by the growth of wealth - management scale in July. After the cross - quarter period, the CD pricing may approach 1.60% [26]. - Huafu Securities points out that factors such as large CD maturities and positive results of Sino - US trade negotiations may lead to an increase in bond yields, but the adjustment range is limited [26][27]. 3.4 Stock - Market Important News - On June 16, the regular adjustment of A - share indexes takes effect, involving multiple Shanghai, Shenzhen, and cross - market indexes [29]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will implement the "Eight Measures for the Science and Technology Innovation Board" and support the development of science - and technology enterprises [30]. - The short - term decline caused by geopolitical events may provide investment opportunities. After sentiment recovery, the pan - technology direction and Hong Kong stocks are favored [30]. - Shenzhen may pilot the secondary listing of red - chip stocks, providing a more convenient listing channel for science - and technology enterprises [30]. - Brokerages focus on the valuation repair of Chinese assets in the A - share market in the second half of the year and are generally optimistic about the Hong Kong - stock market, especially the technology sector [31].