甲醇日评：中东局势升级，甲醇短期或仍有反弹-20250616

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sudden escalation of the Middle - East situation, with intensified conflicts between Israel and Iran and no short - term signs of easing, has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, breaking through the previous high pressure level. Considering that Iran is the main importer of methanol in China, methanol still has short - term rebound momentum. However, due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol futures prices (closing prices) on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: MA01 in Shandong increased by 70 yuan/ton (4.53%), MA05 increased by 58 yuan/ton (2.53%), and MA09 increased by 99 yuan/ton (4.32%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices (daily average) on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: in Guangdong, it increased by 85 yuan/ton (3.66%); in Shaanxi, it increased by 70 yuan/ton (3.58%); in Sichuan - Chongqing, it increased by 60 yuan/ton (2.74%); in Inner Mongolia, it increased by 87.5 yuan/ton (4.61%); there was no change in Hubei [1]. - The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 37.5 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2. Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 all remained unchanged [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: in Hohhot and Chongqing, there were no changes [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profits on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: coal - to - methanol in Northwest MTO remained unchanged at 359.7 yuan/ton; coal - to - methanol in MTO in the East decreased by 159.6 yuan/ton (- 26.60%); natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 570 yuan/ton; MTO in East China decreased by 191.5 yuan/ton (- 26.56%) [1]. - Methanol downstream profits on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: acetic acid decreased by 25 yuan/ton (- 5.85%); MTBE increased by 118.2 yuan/ton (50.22%); formaldehyde and another product remained unchanged [1]. 3.4. Important Information - Domestic futures prices: On June 16, 2025, the main methanol contract MA2509 opened at 2282 yuan/ton, closed at 2389 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,689,953 lots and an open interest of 761,314 lots, showing increased trading volume and decreased open interest. All contracts had trading volume during the trading day [1]. - Foreign information: Currently, 11 methanol plants with a total capacity of 17.16 million tons in a Middle - East country are operating at a low load, and ports such as Asaluyeh are operating normally [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA rose significantly in the range and then declined, with the night - session closing at 2373. Due to the short - term rebound momentum of methanol and the high uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1].