玻璃纯碱：低位价格弹性大，基本面延续偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Bearish investment view, suggesting that investors can buy put options at high prices [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish investment view, recommending buying put options at high prices [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass and soda ash remain weak, with prices reaching low levels and high price elasticity. The downstream terminal demand has entered the off - season, leading to weak supply and demand for glass. The continuous decline in raw fuel prices has weakened cost support, putting pressure on prices. The supply - demand surplus contradiction of soda ash has intensified again. After the end of maintenance, the resumption of production has accelerated, highlighting the pressure of supply surplus. Although the direct demand is okay, the downstream negative feedback pressure has increased significantly, and cost support has weakened, also putting pressure on prices [39] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. This week, the daily output of national float glass was 155,700 tons, a 0.7% decrease from 5 days ago. The industry's start - up rate was 75.42%, a 0.25 - percentage - point decrease from 5 days ago, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.48%, a 0.66 - percentage - point decrease from 5 days ago. Two production lines were shut down and two were ignited this week, with no glass output from the ignited lines. Next week, one previously ignited line may start producing glass, and another line may be shut down, with overall output remaining stable [3] - Demand: Bearish. The demand outlook has weakened, the off - season has arrived, and demand has declined marginally. The pressure for stable growth is high, the mid - term real estate downturn is difficult to reverse, the year - on - year decline in completion data continues, and there are still concerns about future demand [3] - Inventory: Neutral. The inventory has slightly decreased. The enterprise inventory is 69.685 million heavy cases, a 69,000 - heavy - case (0.10%) decrease from the previous period, and a 19.86% increase year - on - year. The inventory days are 30.8 days, a 0.5 - day decrease from the previous period [3] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The basis remained stable this week, and the 09 - 01 spread fluctuated [3] - Valuation: Neutral. The current price is at a relatively low level, but cost support has weakened [3] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. Sino - US negotiations are continuing, and the pressure for domestic stable growth is high [3] - Investment View: Bearish. Weak supply and demand are putting pressure on prices [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Buy put options at high prices; Arbitrage: None [3] Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. Supply has increased. This week, the soda ash output was 740,100 tons, a 36,000 - ton (5.12%) increase from the previous week. Among them, the light soda ash output was 334,300 tons, a 12,400 - ton increase, and the heavy soda ash output was 405,800 tons, a 23,600 - ton increase. Recently, equipment operation has been relatively stable, with few maintenance enterprises. Previously maintained enterprises have gradually resumed production, and overall supply is expected to increase [4] - Demand: Bearish. Demand has remained stable. The demand from float and photovoltaic industries has been stable, but the terminal demand is not ideal, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, with a sharp increase in negative feedback pressure [4] - Inventory: Bearish. The inventory has increased. The total manufacturer inventory is 1.6863 million tons, a 59,300 - ton (3.64%) increase from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 811,300 tons, a 21,300 - ton increase, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 875,000 tons, a 38,000 - ton increase. The inventory shows an increasing trend, and some enterprises have accumulated inventory [4] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The basis fluctuated this week, and the 09 - 01 spread remained stable [4] - Valuation: Neutral. The current price has moved down, but cost support has weakened. The cost of the combined soda process is about 1,200 yuan/ton, the ammonia - soda process is about 1,260 yuan/ton, and the natural soda process is about 1,000 yuan/ton [4] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. Sino - US negotiations are continuing, and the pressure for domestic stable growth is high [4] - Investment View: Bearish. Supply has recovered, and the surplus pressure is gradually increasing [4] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Buy put options at high prices; Arbitrage: None [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price declined. The main contract closed at 976 (- 21), and the Shahe spot price was 1048 (- 8) [6] Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuated downward. The main contract closed at 1156 (- 56), and the Shahe spot price was 1220 (- 23) [11] Spread/Basis - Soda Ash: The 09 - 01 spread and the basis fluctuated [22] - Glass: The 09 - 01 spread and the basis fluctuated [22] 3.3 Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Generally stable. Production has decreased. With the continuous decline in spot prices, glass production profits have decreased. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 182.83 yuan/ton, a 12.15 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week; that using coal - made gas was 80.72 yuan/ton, a 10.24 - yuan/ton decrease; and that using petroleum coke was - 128.47 yuan/ton, a 17.14 - yuan/ton decrease [26] - Demand: Weak. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises are 10.4 days, a 0.5% increase from the previous period and a 7.2% decrease year - on - year. The mid - and back - end completion data of the real estate industry is poor. From January to April, the construction area was 6.20315 billion square meters, a 9.7% year - on - year decrease; the new construction area was 178.36 million square meters, a 23.8% decrease; and the completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a 16.9% decrease [27][28] - Inventory: Slightly decreased. The enterprise inventory is 69.685 million heavy cases, a 69,000 - heavy - case (0.10%) decrease from the previous period, and a 19.86% increase year - on - year. The inventory days are 30.8 days, a 0.5 - day decrease from the previous period [29] Soda Ash - Supply: Production is gradually recovering. Supply has increased. The profit of soda ash plants has decreased. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process is 20.70 yuan/ton, a 29.20 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week. The theoretical profit of the combined soda process (double - ton) is 139.50 yuan/ton, a 38.50 - yuan/ton decrease [33] - Demand: The direct demand is okay, but the negative feedback pressure is high. The demand from float and photovoltaic industries is stable, but the terminal demand is not ideal, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The inventory has increased [36]