有色及新能源周报：风险偏好下滑，有色板块冲高回落-20250616

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector showed a pattern of rising and then falling due to the decline in risk appetite. The copper market is affected by various factors such as macro - economic data, raw material supply, and demand. The zinc market is expected to be weak in the short - term with a supply increase in June. The nickel and stainless - steel market is in a weak and volatile state, influenced by geopolitical risks, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics [1][93][209] - For copper, due to the complex macro - environment and changes in the supply - demand relationship in the industrial chain, the copper price has a risk of falling from high levels. For zinc, considering the supply recovery in June and the weakening demand, the zinc price is expected to decline, and short - selling is recommended. For nickel and stainless - steel, affected by geopolitical risks and policy changes, the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [9][93][209] 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and the prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel. It also provides their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - Macro Factors: The Sino - US economic and trade negotiations had a general market response. The domestic social financing and credit data improved slightly in May, but the demand - side expectations need to be further improved. The US inflation continued to decline, but the expectation of interest - rate cuts did not rise significantly [9] - Raw Material End: The spot processing fee of copper ore decreased slightly, and the copper ore supply remained tight. The domestic copper ore port inventory increased. The production plan of Kamoa - Kakula Copper Mine was reduced due to the flooding incident [9] - Smelting End: The loss of smelters using spot copper ore remained around 2950 yuan/ton, while those using long - term contracts turned from near - break - even to a profit of 40 yuan/ton. The domestic copper production in May increased and is expected to remain high in June [9] - Demand End: With the arrival of the off - season in May and the high copper price, the domestic copper product operating rate declined slightly [9] - Inventory: The domestic copper social inventory decreased slightly, the US copper inventory increased, and the LME copper inventory decreased. The global visible copper inventory decreased slightly [9] - Investment Viewpoint: The copper price is expected to be weak and volatile. The macro - market sentiment is complex, and the industrial support is weakening, so there is a risk of the copper price falling from high levels [9] - Trading Strategy: Short - term high - level volatility for single - side trading and positive spread arbitrage for Shanghai copper. Attention should be paid to the US tariff policy, copper inventory, and the mid - year negotiation of copper ore processing fees [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - Macro Factors: The Middle - East conflict escalated, and the US inflation data cooled down, increasing the expectation of two interest - rate cuts by the Fed this year [93] - Raw Material End: The domestic processing fee remained unchanged, and the import processing fee increased. The zinc concentrate port inventory decreased, but the raw material supply is expected to be stable and abundant in the future [93] - Smelting End: Some previously shut - down smelters in Henan resumed production last week, and more are expected to resume in June. The production is expected to increase by more than 20,000 tons in June but may decline in July due to some planned shutdowns. The inflow of imported goods has an impact on the spot premium [93] - Demand End: The off - season and high - temperature weather in the South have suppressed terminal demand. The export demand is uncertain due to tariff disturbances [93] - Inventory: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased again. As of June 12, it was 7.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from last Thursday. The inventory turning point may become clear in mid - to late June [93] - Investment Viewpoint: The zinc price is expected to decline, and short - selling is recommended [93] - Trading Strategy: Short - selling for single - side trading and waiting for opportunities for arbitrage. Attention should be paid to macro - risks and the uncertainty of smelter shutdowns [93] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - Macro Factors: The Israel - Iran conflict intensified, increasing market risk aversion. The US announced tariffs on steel - made household appliances, which may affect the terminal demand for nickel and stainless steel. The domestic social financing growth in May was stable, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [209] - Raw Material End: The Philippines removed the ban on nickel ore exports, which weakened the market sentiment in the short - term. The Indonesian nickel ore premium remained stable, but the demand for nickel ore procurement may weaken due to the increase in the average inventory of pyrometallurgical smelters. The domestic port inventory decreased slightly due to the impact of rainfall in the Philippines [209] - Smelting End: The production of pure nickel decreased slightly in May. The price of nickel iron decreased, and the supply pressure remained. The MHP coefficient was stable, but some nickel sulfate enterprises still have the expectation of production cuts. In the long - term, the new production capacity of primary nickel in Indonesia is expected to continue to be released [209] - Demand End: The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, with weak spot transactions. The production of some steel mills is expected to decrease slightly in June. The new - energy vehicle production and sales remained high, but the raw material inventory of precursors has accumulated [209] - Inventory: The inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level. As of Friday, the LME nickel inventory was 197,500 tons (- 1.3%), and the SHFE nickel inventory was 25,600 tons (+ 0.3%) [209] - Investment Viewpoint: The nickel price is expected to be weak and volatile. In the long - term, there is still pressure of oversupply for primary nickel. Attention should be paid to the cost range of electrowinning nickel and resource - country policies [209] - Trading Strategy: Short - term short - selling for single - side trading and waiting for opportunities for arbitrage. Attention should be paid to nickel - related policies in resource - rich countries and global macro - disturbances [209]