欧盟碳市场行情简报（2025年第101期）-20250616

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 101 in 2025) [1] Release Date - June 16, 2025 [2] Latest Situation - Concerns about LNG supply disruptions have intensified, and excessively high energy prices may hinder industrial production [2] Auction Information - On June 13, 2025, the EUA auction price was 75.36 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 1.607 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.84, and the auction revenue was 121.1 million euros [4] - On June 12, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.71 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.31, and the auction revenue was 235.98 million euros [4] Futures and Spot Information Futures - On June 13, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 75.94 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 29,700 lots (down 0.70), and the open interest was 32.45 (up 0.20) [2][5] Spot - On June 13, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 74.46 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 718 lots (down 4,564), the container shipping carbon cost was 12.96 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost ratio was 0.70% [5] Investment Strategy - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a range of €67 - 75 [2] Bullish Factors - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices; the failure of the French Civaux nuclear power plant has led to an increase in natural gas and electricity prices in the European continent; the European Commission will propose new regulations on June 17, requiring energy companies to fully disclose the terms, volumes, and destinations of Russian gas contracts, aiming to ban the import of Russian gas by the end of 2027 [2] Bearish Factors - Affected by weak industrial demand and increased domestic pipeline natural gas supply, China's LNG imports have dropped significantly [3]