Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bullish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bullish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term bullish and bearish trends are in a relatively balanced state, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The copper market is affected by the reduction of production targets at the Congo's KK mine, which will reduce the increase in copper concentrate this year. Short - term bears can hold positions after roll - over [2] - The aluminum market has a strong short - term upward trend, but there are concerns about negative feedback in the off - season. There may be opportunities to buy AD and short AL in the casting aluminum alloy market. Alumina futures are weak and should be shorted on rebounds [3] - The zinc market is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and a supply - demand imbalance. High - level short positions should be held [4] - The nickel and stainless - steel market is bearish, and short positions should be followed [7] - The tin market is in a situation of tight supply of concentrates and weak supply - demand. Some short positions can be reduced or moved to far - month contracts [8] - The lithium carbonate market is in a short - term shock due to slowed price decline of Australian ore and increased production in the middle - stream [9] - The industrial silicon market has increased supply pressure and weak demand, and short positions can be lightly established [10] - The polysilicon market has increased inventory pressure and is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend [11] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, the afternoon session of Shanghai copper futures saw an expanded decline, with the main contract falling to 78,000 yuan. The spot copper price was 7,895 yuan, and the premium in Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. The G7 meeting over the weekend focused on US - allied tariff news. Ivanhoe lowered the production target of the Congo's KK mine to 37 - 420,000 tons, reducing the increase in copper concentrate by at least 100,000 tons. Short - term bears should hold positions after roll - over [2] Aluminum and Alumina - The squeeze - out market of Shanghai aluminum has intensified, with a large increase in the monthly spread. The strong inventory reduction in the aluminum market supports the near - month contracts, while concerns about seasonal demand decline and pre - export suppress the far - month contracts. After filling the previous gap, Shanghai aluminum has broken through. Attention should be paid to when the off - season negative feedback will be realized. The far - month contracts of casting aluminum alloy remain volatile. The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised by 100 yuan to 19,600 yuan. The supply of alumina has high elasticity after profit recovery, and the futures market remains weak. The price of Guinea ore is stable at $75, corresponding to a cost of about 3,000 yuan in Shanxi. It's not advisable to chase short positions due to a large futures discount [3] Zinc - Due to geopolitical tensions, the external market has weakened significantly. The spot import loss has narrowed, and low - priced imported ingots have impacted the domestic spot market. Coupled with the domestic supply - demand imbalance, Shanghai zinc has experienced a sharp decline. The weighted position has increased by 22,900 lots to 300,000 lots, and the settled funds have reached 5.833 billion yuan. The average price of SMM 0 zinc has dropped by 70 yuan to 22,240 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. As the delivery approaches, the exchange warehouse receipts have increased to 8,972 tons. High - level short positions should be held [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has declined slowly, and market trading is dull. The spot premium is stable, with the far - month contracts being stronger. The Philippine Congress has removed the ban on raw ore exports from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill. The loading progress of Philippine nickel mines has been delayed. The price of downstream NPI has stopped falling and stabilized, but domestic NPI smelters are still seriously in deficit. The high - nickel iron is priced at 953 yuan per nickel point, showing some resistance at low levels. Nickel iron inventory has increased, and the surplus is mainly concentrated in the stainless - steel segment. Technically, Shanghai nickel is under pressure, and short positions should be followed [7] Tin - Shanghai tin has fluctuated and declined. The spot tin price is 265,600 yuan, with a premium of 740 yuan to the 2506 contract as the delivery approaches. The supply of tin concentrates is expected to remain tight for a longer time. In the context of weak supply - demand, attention should be paid to the current price and wait for the social inventory data. Some short positions can be reduced or moved to far - month contracts [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate has shown narrow - range fluctuations, and market trading is average. The overall market inventory is stable at a high level. The inventory in the intermediate link has increased, but the downstream restocking and upstream destocking have not been sustained. The price decline of Australian ore has slowed down, and the production in the middle - stream has increased by 7% month - on - month. Technically, the decline of lithium carbonate futures has slowed down, and it is in a short - term shock [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures have declined with reduced positions, closing at 7,345 yuan/ton. The spot price has stabilized. After the resumption of production of large enterprises in Xinjiang, the subsequent production may increase, and the monthly supply pressure has increased. Although the downstream demand has improved marginally, the high - level social inventory pattern is difficult to change. Technically, the bullish sentiment has cooled down, and short positions can be lightly established [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures have declined with increased positions, closing at 33,695 yuan/ton. The spot price has been lowered, with the average price of SMM's N - type re - feed material at 36,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some polysilicon enterprises have resumed production, and the total production in June has increased to 101,000 tons, while the downstream silicon wafer production has been reduced by about 2GW. The inventory pressure has increased, and the market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend [11]
有色金属日报-20250616
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-06-16 05:31