中信期货晨报：地缘冲突加剧，油、金价表现偏强-20250616

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals still have the momentum to recover, but the recovery is disturbed by geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects. The Fed is expected to "hold steady" in June due to the rebound of May CPI data falling short of expectations and the potential hawkish signals from the soaring oil prices [6]. - Domestic macro: The domestic price level remains weakly stable, with the downstream performing better than the upstream. International input factors lead to price declines in related industries, and downstream production tends to digest existing inventories, increasing pressure on upstream production. The PPI - CPI gap shows downward pressure recently [6]. - Asset views: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities due to the weakly stable pattern of domestic prices and the economy, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas Macro: The US economic fundamentals continue to recover from the contraction in Q1, but are affected by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. The Fed is likely to "hold steady" in June as the May CPI rebound is below expectations, and the soaring oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [6]. - Domestic Macro: The domestic price level is weakly stable, with the downstream outperforming the upstream. International factors cause price drops in upstream industries, and downstream production focuses on inventory digestion, increasing upstream pressure. The PPI - CPI gap shows recent downward pressure [6]. - Asset Views: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern persists, and attention should be given to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of gold [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Macro: - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are implemented, and the fiscal end implements established policies in the short term [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. Financial: - Stock Index Futures: Micro - cap risks are not yet released, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [7]. - Stock Index Options: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Focus on the liquidity of the options market [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The short - end may be relatively strong, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to changes in the capital market and policy expectations [7]. Precious Metals: - Gold/Silver: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeds expectations, and precious metals continue to adjust in the short term. Monitor Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. Shipping: - Container Shipping to Europe: Pay attention to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The market is expected to fluctuate. Focus on tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials: - Steel: The static fundamentals are good, but the demand expectation is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [7]. - Iron Ore: Steel mills' hot metal production slightly decreases, and port inventories increase slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [7]. - Coke: Demand support weakens, and the futures price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Focus on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - Coking Coal: Upstream inventories continue to accumulate, and mine shutdowns increase. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Monitor steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - Silicon Iron: The supply - demand expectation is poor, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - Manganese Silicon: The Hebei Steel tender is announced, and market sentiment is poor. The market is expected to fluctuate. Focus on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - Glass: Spot sales and production weaken, and inventories decrease slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor spot sales and production [7]. - Soda Ash: Supply gradually recovers, and upstream inventories accumulate. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to soda ash inventories [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: - Copper: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are operating at a high level. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish - than - expected stance, and the less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [7]. - Alumina: The spot price drops, and the alumina futures price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to the less - than - expected resumption of ore production, the more - than - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [7]. - Aluminum: Affected by Trump's steel and aluminum tariff increase and other factors, the aluminum price fluctuates at a high level. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [7]. - Zinc: After the price drop, downstream procurement is active. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to macro - turning risks and the more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [7]. - Lead: Cost support is temporarily stable, and the lead price fluctuates. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor supply - side disruptions and the slowdown of battery exports [7]. - Nickel: The Philippines removes the ban on raw ore exports, and the nickel price is weak in the short term. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [7]. - Stainless Steel: The nickel - iron price continues to decline, and the futures price fluctuates. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [7]. - Tin: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and the tin price fluctuates. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the resumption expectation of Wa State and the change in demand improvement expectation [7]. - Industrial Silicon: The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the silicon price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Monitor more - than - expected supply cuts and more - than - expected photovoltaic installations [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Market sentiment deteriorates, and the price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. Energy and Chemicals: - Crude Oil: Geopolitical risks intensify, and oil price fluctuations increase. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor OPEC+ production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [9]. - LPG: Cost - side support increases, and LPG follows the crude oil rebound. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to developments in crude oil and overseas propane costs [9]. - Asphalt: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, and the asphalt futures price strengthens. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor more - than - expected demand [9]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lead to a resurgence of the geopolitical premium of fuel oil. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices [9]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price follows the crude oil price increase. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices [9]. - Methanol: The Iran - Israel conflict causes a significant increase in methanol prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - Urea: The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the futures price is weak. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to market transactions, policy trends, and demand realization [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Terminal demand is less than expected, and inventory reduction through maintenance is reflected in the monthly spread. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Monitor the terminal demand for ethylene glycol [9]. - PX: Supply restarts quickly. Monitor PTA production and polyester start - up. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to crude oil fluctuations and downstream device changes [9]. - PTA: Supply increases and demand decreases, and the PTA pattern weakens marginally. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor polyester production [9]. - Short - Fiber: Short - fiber industry production cuts lead to a slight repair of processing fees. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Pay attention to terminal textile and clothing exports [9]. - Bottle Chips: High - level production leads to oversupply, and low processing fees will continue. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor the later start - up of bottle chips [9]. - PP: The oil price rises significantly, but the fundamentals are still under pressure, and PP rebounds. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the oil price and domestic and international macro situations [9]. - Plastic: In the short term, it follows the oil price fluctuations and rebounds. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the oil price and domestic and international macro situations [9]. - Styrene: Macro expectations rise again, and styrene rebounds. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to the oil price, macro policies, and device dynamics [9]. - PVC: Geopolitical conflicts boost market sentiment, and PVC is recommended to be shorted at high prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - Caustic Soda: The cost center weakens, and caustic soda runs weakly. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to market sentiment, start - up, and demand [9]. - Oils and Fats: The production increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil may weaken marginally, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is normal. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - Protein Meal: The basis of soybean meal from October to January increases in volume, and the hedging pressure on the futures market increases. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, macro situation, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars [9]. - Corn/Starch: The spot price increase slows down, and the futures price is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, macro situation, and weather [9]. Agriculture: - Hogs: The average weight is high, and the spot and near - month prices are still under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - Rubber: The rebound ends, and the price drops rapidly in the afternoon. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the weather in production areas, raw material prices, and macro changes [9]. - Synthetic Rubber: It first falls and then rises, and is treated as weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations [9]. - Paper Pulp: The futures price drops, and there is a greater possibility of breaking through the lower platform. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotations [9]. - Cotton: The rebound height of the cotton price is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to demand and production [9]. - Sugar: The new - season sugar market is expected to be loose, and domestic and international sugar prices continue to decline. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to abnormal weather [9]. - Logs: The spot price weakens, and the futures price is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to shipment volume and shipping volume [9].