国内高频指标跟踪（2025年第 23 期）：外部扰动，内部偏稳

Consumption - Consumer performance remains weak, with automotive retail sales dropping to 43,000 units, the lowest since early March[5] - Service consumption has declined due to high temperatures and rainy weather, impacting urban mobility and tourism[5] - Movie and travel consumption have also decreased, with the tourism price index in Hainan falling by 1.7%[5] Investment - Real estate sales have rebounded year-on-year, primarily due to the holiday effect, with new home sales in 30 cities increasing from -22.5% to 7.9%[15] - Infrastructure funding remains weak, with new medium- and long-term loans totaling 330 billion yuan, a decrease of 170 billion yuan year-on-year[15] - The land transaction area has dropped to its lowest level, with a premium rate of only 1.04%, indicating a cooling land market[15] Trade and Exports - South Korea's exports and imports from China saw significant year-on-year growth of 5.4% and 14.2%, respectively, due to low base effects[23] - Port operations remain stable, with cargo throughput and container throughput affected by the holiday[23] Production - The production of automotive semi-steel tires has increased, while coal consumption for power generation has seen a widening year-on-year decline[25] - The operating rate for PTA has risen seasonally, but the overall production indicators are mixed, with some sectors experiencing declines[25] Inventory and Prices - Coal and construction material inventories continue to decrease due to reduced supply, while consumer prices show mixed trends[33][35] - Oil prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent and WTI prices increasing by 6.2% and 7.2% respectively[37] Liquidity - The US dollar index has decreased by 87 basis points, reflecting weak economic data and geopolitical tensions[39] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan in funds, with slight fluctuations in funding rates observed[39]