KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-06-16 06:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, which has been downgraded from a previous rating [5]. Core Views - The company has experienced a significant decline in sales scale, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.18% in May 2025 and a cumulative decline of 44.19% for the first five months of 2025. Despite this, the average sales price has increased by 17.32% year-on-year in May 2025 [6][10]. - The company continues to receive financial support from its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, which has provided multiple loans totaling 148.52 billion yuan at a rate of 2.34% [7][18]. - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting a net profit of -7.32 billion yuan in 2025, 557 million yuan in 2026, and 1.314 billion yuan in 2027 [5][8]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 312.62 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -7.32 billion yuan, with an EPS of -0.61 yuan [8][22]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 16.4% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to be -2.6% [22]. - The company's total assets are estimated to be 1,331.94 billion yuan in 2025, with total liabilities of 1,001.22 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 75.2% [21][22]. Sales Performance - In May 2025, the company achieved a sales amount of 14.19 billion yuan, with a sales area of 970,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 48.16% in sales area [6][10]. - The cumulative sales amount for the first five months of 2025 was 57.04 billion yuan, with a sales area of 4.245 million square meters, both showing significant declines compared to the previous year [10][13]. Shareholder Support - The major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, has provided continuous financial support through loans, with the latest loan of up to 30 billion yuan announced on June 6, 2025 [7][18]. - The total amount of loans from Shenzhen Metro Group to the company has reached 148.52 billion yuan, indicating strong backing during challenging market conditions [7][18].