银行行业：财政发力支撑社融平稳增长，信贷需求仍然偏弱

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [24]. Core Insights - The growth of social financing (社融) in May was primarily supported by proactive fiscal policies, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in outstanding social financing [1][2]. - Credit demand remains weak, with a notable decline in new loans compared to previous months, particularly in corporate loans [2][3]. - The issuance of government bonds has been front-loaded, contributing significantly to the increase in social financing, with net financing of government bonds reaching 1.46 trillion yuan in May [2]. - The overall loan growth rate is at 7.1%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous month, and the total new loans for May amounted to 620 billion yuan [1][2]. - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable growth in scale due to the issuance of long-term special government bonds and a shift in local government focus towards economic recovery [8][9]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit - In May, social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan year-on-year, mainly driven by government bond issuance [2]. - Corporate loans showed a mixed performance, with short-term loans increasing while medium to long-term loans decreased due to debt replacement impacts [3]. - The total new loans for May were 620 billion yuan, down 330 billion yuan year-on-year, with a cumulative total of 1.07 trillion yuan for the first five months, reflecting a decrease of 460 billion yuan year-on-year [2][3]. Deposits and Monetary Supply - M2 increased by 7.9% year-on-year, while M1 saw a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, significantly influenced by a low base from the previous year [4]. - New deposits in May reached 2.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan year-on-year, with notable contributions from non-bank and fiscal deposits [4][19]. Interest Rates and Profitability - The average interest rate for new corporate loans remained stable at approximately 3.2%, while personal housing loans also held steady at around 3.1% [3][15]. - The banking sector is expected to experience manageable pressure on net interest income due to declining loan rates and adjustments in deposit rates [8][9].