Group 1 - The report analyzes the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the A-share market, noting that such events typically cause short-term disturbances, with the most significant impact observed during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][14] - The report indicates that the A-share index usually recovers within three trading days after a geopolitical event, suggesting that these disturbances can be viewed as short-term "pulses" [1][14] - In terms of industry performance, oil and gas, as well as military industries, show strong short-term performance during geopolitical conflicts, while banking, electricity, and gold sectors exhibit resilience [2][15] Group 2 - The report highlights that the defense and military sectors tend to lead gains on the first day of a geopolitical conflict, with the oil and gas sector showing weaker sustainability in performance [2][15] - It is noted that even if international oil prices rise significantly, it does not guarantee sustained growth in the oil and gas sector, as evidenced by the 30% increase in ICE Brent crude prices following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while the A-share oil and gas sector peaked on the first day of the conflict [2][18] - The report suggests that the military industry has shown consistent gains in the aftermath of recent conflicts, with specific sub-sectors like ground weaponry and aerospace equipment performing well [2][20] Group 3 - The report recommends maintaining a balanced portfolio and being patient while waiting for a clear market direction, with a focus on sectors such as ground weaponry, aerospace equipment, and new energy vehicles [29] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-growth industries after the 2024 annual reports and 2025 quarterly reports are released, suggesting a focus on sectors like feed, motorcycles, and animal health [29] - Defensive assets such as banks, insurance, and utilities are recommended as core holdings, with attention to sectors like shipping ports and white goods that have shown increased dividend yields [29]
地缘冲突爆发如何影响A股？
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-06-16 07:18