铝：近期行情几个关注点

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market has broken its silence recently, driven by factors such as tightened domestic and overseas spot supplies and rising energy prices. The market is expected to remain highly volatile, and there are several key points to watch in the future [2][5]. - With low aluminum ingot inventories in both the Chinese and London markets, the upward elasticity of aluminum prices remains high. Concerns about the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation may lead to further increases in energy prices, potentially driving aluminum prices higher. However, considering the weakening domestic spot demand and the medium - term demand decline risk, the risk of a short squeeze in Shanghai aluminum futures is decreasing. Overseas aluminum supply and demand depend on the game between high aluminum prices in the US and demand. If US demand is rigid, overseas aluminum spot is expected to remain tight; otherwise, the supply outside the US will loosen marginally, limiting the upside of aluminum prices [2][38]. 3. Summary by Directory Overseas Geopolitical Situation and Cost - Side Changes - On the early morning of June 13, Israel launched a large - scale attack on Iran, causing damage to key nuclear facilities. Crude oil prices soared by over 13% on Friday. The situation escalated over the weekend, with Iran retaliating and Israel expanding its attacks. Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and canceled the planned US - Iran nuclear talks. If the situation continues to escalate, global oil and gas supply shortages will intensify, increasing the risk of further energy price hikes [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum production is highly energy - consuming. Rising overseas energy prices will increase production costs and the risk of production cuts. Many major overseas electrolytic aluminum supply countries rely on oil, gas, or coal for power generation, so energy price fluctuations cannot be ignored. Historically, there is a strong positive correlation between crude oil and aluminum prices, and if energy prices rise further, aluminum prices are likely to follow [7]. Domestic Aluminum Inventory and Shanghai Aluminum Futures Spread Changes - Since April, domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories have been declining. As of June 12, mainstream area aluminum ingot inventories dropped to about 460,000 tons, a multi - year low, down 320,000 tons from last year and about 30,000 tons from the beginning of the year. Aluminum rod inventories were about 128,000 tons, down 41,000 tons from last year and up 11,000 tons from the beginning of the year. Stable supply, strong demand in new energy vehicles, home appliances, and power, as well as strong export demand, led to inventory depletion. The tightening supply drove up the basis and widened the futures spread. The spread between the continuous contract and the third - month contract of Shanghai aluminum widened from 240 yuan/ton at the beginning of June to 800 yuan/ton on June 13, providing strong support for the single - side price [13]. - Looking ahead, the risk of further spread widening is low, and the support for aluminum prices will weaken. The spread widening was mainly due to short - covering in the 2506 contract near its delivery. After the contract switch this week, the short - squeeze risk will ease, and bullish sentiment may cool. The spot market has cooled with rising prices and spreads. On June 13, the spot in East China shifted from premium to discount, and trading became more cautious. The operating rate of key aluminum profile enterprises declined, and the aluminum rod processing fee was continuously lowered. In the long run, domestic demand for aluminum in photovoltaic and new energy vehicles may decline, and the increase in US tariffs on steel and aluminum will also pressure domestic home appliance demand for aluminum [18][19]. Changes in the Overseas Market after the US Aluminum Tariff Hike - On March 12, the US raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 25%, and on June 3, it further increased them to 50%. After the initial tariff announcement in February, the spot premium in the US Midwest jumped from about $500/ton to about $800/ton. The US saw a "rush to import" in March, with imports rising from 200,000 tons in February to about 270,000 tons, but imports declined in April after the tariff implementation. With the tariff increase in June, the spot premium in the US Midwest soared to about $1,290/ton in mid - June, significantly increasing the cost of using aluminum for US enterprises, but the US can still import a certain amount at this price [25]. - Outside the US, the LME market has seen a marginal tightening of spot supply as aluminum ingot inventories decrease, and the Cash/3M discount has narrowed significantly since April, providing strong support for aluminum prices. The future of overseas aluminum supply and demand depends on the game between high US aluminum prices and demand. If US demand is rigid, overseas aluminum spot will remain tight; if high prices squeeze out consumption, the supply outside the US will loosen marginally, limiting the upside of aluminum prices [28].