东海证券晨会纪要-20250616

Group 1 - Government financing continues to support social financing, with M1 growth improving. As of the end of May, the social financing scale increased by 8.7% year-on-year, while M2 and M1 grew by 7.9% and 2.3% respectively [5][6][7] - The new corporate medium and long-term loans decreased by 1,700 million yuan year-on-year, reflecting the substitution effect of government debt and corporate bonds [6][7] - The government issued 14,633 million yuan in new government bonds in May, which is an increase of 2,367 million yuan compared to the same period last year, supporting a rapid growth in social financing [7][8] Group 2 - Global asset review indicates that the stock market mostly declined, while crude oil prices rebounded significantly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [12][13] - Brent crude oil prices surged over 7% on June 13, with concerns about supply disruptions from Iran potentially affecting global oil production [14] - The domestic equity market saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.75% to 3,377 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext also experiencing losses [19][20] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of focusing on stable dividends and recovery potential in investment strategies, particularly in state-owned banks and leading small and medium-sized banks [11] - The report suggests that the overall asset quality remains stable, despite the need for further confirmation regarding retail asset risks [11][22] - The report emphasizes the need for a balanced approach in credit issuance, focusing on both total volume and structural optimization to support consumption and innovation [7][11]