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宏观专题报告:地方国补,缘何“暂停”?
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-06-16 07:45

Group 1: Policy Changes and Funding - The 2025 "old-for-new" policy has significantly increased funding support to 300 billion yuan, up from 150 billion yuan in 2024[15] - The subsidy scope has expanded to include more products, such as microwaves, water purifiers, dishwashers, rice cookers, and digital products like smartphones[15] - The distribution of funds will favor regions that performed well in 2024, with adjustments based on local demand and spending progress[16] Group 2: Implementation and Progress - By the end of May, 162 billion yuan in central government subsidies had been allocated, with a rapid redemption rate in some regions, such as Chongqing at 82.3%[20] - National sales under the "old-for-new" program reached 1.1 trillion yuan by May 31, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued[20] - In April, the retail sales growth of consumer goods was 5.1%, with significant variances in categories; home appliances saw a 38.8% increase, while automotive and communication equipment sales declined[23] Group 3: Regional Variations and Challenges - The "old-for-new" policy has shown better results in central and western regions, with some areas like Liaoning and Gansu reporting appliance sales growth of 97% and 88% respectively[25] - Some regions have faced subsidy exhaustion, leading to the suspension of online applications and adjustments in subsidy mechanisms, such as in Chongqing and Guangdong[41] - Approximately 138 billion yuan in "old-for-new" funds remain to be allocated, with potential for additional funding if current allocations are exhausted[5]