五矿期货文字早评-20250616

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, the previous trading day saw declines in major indices, but with increased trading volume. Given current policies and market conditions, it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" on dips [2][4]. - In the bond market, the central bank's liquidity injection maintains a positive attitude, and short - term bond market trends are expected to be volatile. In the long - term, with weak domestic demand recovery and loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [8]. - In the precious metals market, due to lower - than - expected US inflation data, the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year has increased, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, especially silver, and go long on dips [9][12]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to fluctuate at a high level, aluminum may rise first and then fall, zinc has a large downward risk, and lead is expected to be weak [14][15][16][17]. - In the black building materials market, steel products are affected by factors such as weak demand and tariff policies, and attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and glass and soda ash are expected to be weak [27][29][30]. - In the energy and chemical market, rubber is affected by different views on supply and demand, and it is recommended to operate neutrally. Crude oil has reached a short - selling range, and methanol, urea, etc. have their own supply - demand characteristics and trading suggestions [39][40][43]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of pigs, eggs, etc. have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to different supply - demand situations [55][56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index, etc. declined, with a total trading volume of 1467.2 billion yuan, an increase of 195.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - The 5 - month social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, and the central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on June 16. The financing amount increased by 2.387 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate increased by 4.40bp to 1.411% [3]. - The basis ratios of index futures were provided, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" on dips [4]. Bond - On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose slightly [6]. - As of the end of May 2025, the social financing scale stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, and the central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on June 16. The central bank achieved a net injection of 6.75 billion yuan on Friday [7]. - The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a positive attitude, and short - term bond market trends are expected to be volatile. In the long - term, interest rates are expected to decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [8]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.64%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.24%. COMEX gold and silver also rose [9]. - Due to lower - than - expected US inflation data, the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year has increased, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, especially silver, and go long on dips [9][12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices rose first and then fell. The inventories of the three major exchanges decreased by 18,000 tons week - on - week. The spot import loss widened, and it is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [14]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices rose. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline, and it is expected that aluminum prices may rise first and then fall, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern [15]. Zinc - As of Friday, the zinc index fell 1.40%. Zinc ore is in an oversupply situation, and there is a large downward risk for zinc prices [16]. Lead - As of Friday, the lead index rose 0.26%. Downstream battery companies have weak consumption, and lead prices are expected to be weak [17]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated downward. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short at high prices [18]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, and terminal demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [19]. Carbonate Lithium - The fundamentals of carbonate lithium have not improved substantially, and there is a large selling pressure above. It is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term [20]. Alumina - On June 13, the alumina index fell 1.45%. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the second half of the year [21]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract fell 0.28%. The inventory of Qing Shan resources is high, and steel prices are under pressure, but they are expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [22][23][24]. Black Building Materials Steel - On the previous trading day, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil both rose slightly. The demand for steel products is weak, and attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery [26][27]. Iron Ore - On Friday, the main contract of iron ore fell 0.14%. The supply of iron ore is increasing, the demand is weakening marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [28][29]. Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, the spot price is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly. For soda ash, the spot price is stable, and the inventory has increased slightly. Both are expected to be weak [30]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On June 13, the main contract of manganese silicon rose 0.92%, and the main contract of ferrosilicon rose 0.50%. The demand for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is expected to weaken, and it is not recommended to buy on the left side [31][32]. Industrial Silicon - On June 13, the main contract of industrial silicon fell 1.56%. The industrial silicon market has over - capacity and insufficient demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [35][36]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - Crude oil rose sharply, driving NR and RU to rebound. The bulls and bears have different views on the rubber market, and it is recommended to operate neutrally [39][40]. Crude Oil - As of Friday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose. The current geopolitical risk has been gradually released, and the oil price has reached a short - selling range [42][43]. Methanol - On June 13, the 09 - contract of methanol rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is difficult to improve continuously. It is recommended to wait and see after the geopolitical conflict's positive impact is realized [44]. Urea - On June 13, the 09 - contract of urea rose. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the price has returned to a low level. It is recommended to go long at a low level [45]. Styrene - The spot price of styrene is unchanged, and the futures price has risen. The short - term contradiction is the rise in naphtha prices, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly after the war stabilizes [46]. PVC - The PVC09 - contract rose. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future [48]. Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short at a high level [49]. PTA - The PTA09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to go long at a low level following PX [50]. Para - xylene - The PX09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening in the short term, and it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at a low level following crude oil [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - The price of polyethylene has risen. The supply pressure may be relieved in June, and it is expected to fluctuate [52]. Polypropylene (PP) - The price of polypropylene has risen. The supply will increase in June, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. It is expected to be bearish [53]. Agricultural Products Pigs - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices rose. It is expected that pig prices will consolidate today. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at a low level and short on long - term contracts at a high level [55]. Eggs - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were stable. It is expected that egg prices will be stable this week. It is recommended to exit short positions at a low level and short on long - term contracts after a rebound [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Friday, US soybeans rose more than 2%. The domestic soybean meal spot price has increased. The US soybean production area will have good rainfall in the next two weeks. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish on far - month soybean meal contracts [57][58]. Oils and Fats - High - frequency export data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase. The US bio - diesel policy draft is beyond expectations, and it is recommended to be bullish on oils and fats in the short term [59][60]. Sugar - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated strongly. The international sugar market supply may be increasing, and the domestic sugar price is likely to weaken in the future [61][62]. Cotton - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The downstream operating rate has decreased slightly, and the cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [63][64][65].