Core Viewpoints - Overseas geopolitical conflicts have intensified market wait - and - see sentiment, slowing down the TA destocking speed and weakening fundamental support. The destocking speed may affect the driving force for market rebound. In the long - term, demand growth is the driving factor for long - term price increases, and TA's driving force still lies in crude oil. Risk management for TA is necessary due to the unsubsided overseas recession expectations [5]. - Energy price fluctuations are the most important driving factor for the TA market. The repair of the technical gap in the daily K of crude oil has reduced the pressure on TA's late - stage callback after a counter - trend rise. However, the rise in crude oil prices is mainly due to geopolitical factors rather than substantial demand growth, so the sustainability of the price increase is limited. Given the high absolute level of TA inventory, risk management and hedging should be considered [10]. Section Summaries Two: The destocking trend in the peak season remains unchanged, but the inventory digestion efficiency has decreased - Overseas geopolitical conflicts have led to increased market wait - and - see sentiment, slowing down the TA destocking speed and weakening fundamental support. The destocking speed may affect the driving force for market rebound. The problem of insufficient risk release time in the global financial market still exists, and energy price rebounds are difficult to achieve overnight. In the long - run, demand growth is the driving factor for price increases, and TA's driving force still lies in crude oil. Risk management for TA is necessary due to unsubsided overseas recession expectations [5]. Four: Market volatility has increased, pay attention to crude oil dynamics - Energy price fluctuations are the most important driving factor for the TA market. The repair of the technical gap in the daily K of crude oil has reduced the pressure on TA's late - stage callback after a counter - trend rise. The increased volatility of crude oil prices significantly affects the TA futures price, and the rebound slope of the TA main contract has increased. However, the rise in crude oil prices is mainly due to geopolitical factors rather than substantial demand growth, so the sustainability of the price increase is limited. Given the high absolute level of TA inventory, if energy prices adjust again, market risks may still exist, so risk management and hedging should be considered [10].
国金期货PTA周度报告-20250616
Guo Jin Qi Huo·2025-06-16 08:01