高硫近端受地缘及发电需求支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil spot window trading volume decreased compared to last week but remained active. High inventories in Singapore pressured the spot premium to decline slightly, while high - sulfur cracking was supported by geopolitical factors and peak - season power generation demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium fluctuated, with supply continuously increasing and downstream demand remaining weak. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - level disturbances, and consider going long on the FU9 - 1 calendar spread when the price is low [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - High - sulfur fuel oil: Spot window trading volume decreased week - on - week but remained active. High inventories in Singapore pressured the spot premium to decline slightly. Geopolitical factors and peak - season power generation demand supported high - sulfur cracking. Supply was affected by the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the intensification of the US - Iran - Israel conflict, while demand was supported by seasonal power generation needs in regions like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Spot premium fluctuated. Supply continued to increase, and downstream demand was weak. Supply sources included Nigeria, South Sudan, and Al - Zour refinery, and the Chinese market had sufficient supply and stable demand [3] 3.1.2 Strategies - Single - sided: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to geopolitical and macro - level disturbances. - Arbitrage: Go long on the FU9 - 1 calendar spread when the price is low. - Options: No recommendation [4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - side Factors - Russia - Ukraine conflict: The conflict intensified, with attacks on energy facilities. EU sanctions were strengthened, and Russia's refinery offline capacity in June increased by 21% to 3.2 million tons. High - sulfur fuel oil exports in the week of June 12 were at a low level, 267,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous week [6] - Mexico: High - sulfur supply returned to the level before the Olmeca refinery's operation. In June, high - sulfur exports were around the average level. In May, total high - sulfur exports were 730,000 tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons (- 11%) month - on - month and 290,000 tons (- 28%) year - on - year [9] - US - Iran - Israel conflict: The conflict intensified, affecting export supply. Middle - East high - sulfur exports decreased in May, and Iran's high - sulfur exports were at a low level [12] 3.2.2 Demand - side Factors - High - sulfur power generation demand peak season: Egypt's summer power generation demand was supported by fuel oil imports. South Asia's power generation demand peak was in the second - quarter summer. Middle - East high - sulfur power generation demand increased in advance [19] - China, India, and UAE: China's refinery procurement willingness decreased recently, while India's and UAE's feedstock demand increased [22] - High - sulfur marine fuel demand: Demand was stably supported, and the marginal increase came from the stable growth in the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers [23] 3.2.3 Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - South Sudan: External raw material supply recovered, and export tenders continued [26] - Al - Zour refinery: Exports remained at a high level, and supply to the pan - Singapore area increased month - on - month [27] - Nigeria: Near - term low - sulfur supply was abundant, all directed towards Singapore [30] - China: The domestic low - sulfur market had stable production, and the planned production in June was expected to increase [36] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Price and Spread Data - Fuel oil spot prices, high - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - period spreads, low - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - variety spreads, natural gas - fuel oil price ratios, cross - region freight rates, and Singapore bunkering spreads were presented in graphical forms [41][47][53] 3.3.2 Inventory Data - Singapore's on - shore fuel oil inventory increased by 5.0% week - on - week to 3.734 million tons. ARA region's fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, diesel inventory increased by 0.9%, and gasoline inventory decreased by 5.7%. US Gulf fuel oil inventory decreased by 11.5% week - on - week. Middle - East fuel oil inventory increased by 21.0% week - on - week. Japan's total fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week [67] 3.3.3 Terminal Sales Data - In May, Singapore's marine fuel sales volume was 4.878 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 474,000 tons (+ 10.8%) and a year - on - year increase of 51,000 tons (+ 1.1%). High - sulfur marine fuel sales volume was 1.934 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons (+ 11.6%) and a year - on - year increase of 191,000 tons (+ 10.9%), accounting for 39.6% of total marine fuel sales. Low - sulfur marine fuel sales volume was 2.551 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [74]