周度策略行业配置观点：过滤噪声，以“稳”为主-20250616

Key Points - The report emphasizes a cautious investment strategy focusing on stability amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][2] - Recent events include US-China trade talks in London, disappointing US CPI data, and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel [1][8] - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance at 3400 points, while sectors like new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and precious metals demonstrated resilience [1][8] Weekly Event Review - The US-China trade discussions did not yield substantial agreements, indicating a prolonged negotiation period on tariffs and export controls [2][9] - The US CPI for May rose by 2.4%, below expectations, while non-farm employment increased by 139,000, suggesting a mixed economic outlook [9] - The military conflict between Iran and Israel intensified, with significant airstrikes and retaliatory actions, raising concerns over regional stability [9] Trading Data - The report notes an increase in average daily trading volume to 1.37 trillion yuan during the week [1][8] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong defensive characteristics and stable earnings, particularly: - Gold: Driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, gold prices have surged, breaking through $3,400 per ounce [3][17] - Banking Sector: The banking sector is viewed as a stable investment due to resilient earnings and attractive dividends, providing a safe haven for investors [3][18] - Hydropower: The hydropower sector is highlighted for its stable cost structure and consistent cash flow, making it a preferred choice for risk-averse investors [3][18]