纸浆：下游需求改善不佳，浆价弱势运行为主

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The port inventory of pulp shows a cumulative trend, the supply pressure continues to intensify, the downstream demand improvement is not obvious, the pulp consumption in the base paper market fails to effectively recover, paper mills mainly digest raw material inventories, and the operating rate remains at a low level. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will mainly fluctuate in the range of 5110 - 5290 this week [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Analysis - Spot Pulp Price Review: Last week, the market price of pulp spot was narrowly sorted. The prices of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp in Shandong area generally declined, with coniferous pulp silver star, kelip, and beimu down 0.81%, 0.80%, and 0.78% respectively; broad - leaf pulp goldfish, alpine down 0.49% and 1.20% respectively. The prices of natural color pulp and bamboo pulp also decreased slightly, with natural color pulp Venus down 2.91% and southwest bamboo pulp down 3.19% [8][11]. - Pulp Futures Price Review: The pulp futures contract SP2509 first rose and then fell last week, closing at 5198 yuan/ton, down 0.50% for the week, with weighted trading volume and open interest increasing [14]. - Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison: Due to the larger decline in the spot price of coniferous wood pulp than the futures price, the basis discount continued to narrow slightly, with a discount of 858 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton narrower than last week [18]. - Log Futures Price Review: The main log futures contract 2507 showed a wide - range shock last week, closing at 767.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.13% week - on - week, with trading volume increasing and open interest decreasing [20]. 2. Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - Weekly Pulp Production: Last week, the pulp production was 48.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.73%. It is expected that the domestic broad - leaf pulp production will be about 21.2 tons and the chemimechanical pulp production will be about 19.8 tons this week [4][22]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: Last week, the domestic broad - leaf pulp capacity utilization rate was 77.5%, a week - on - week increase of 3.6%; the domestic chemimechanical pulp capacity utilization rate was 82.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8% [27]. - Monthly Pulp Production: In May 2025, the domestic pulp production was 199.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49%; the wood pulp production was 165.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67% [29]. - Monthly Capacity Utilization Rate: In May 2025, the domestic broad - leaf pulp capacity utilization rate was 77.9%, a month - on - month increase of 8.68%; the chemimechanical pulp capacity utilization rate was 84.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.58% [31]. - Monthly Production Profit: In May 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 660.9 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 35.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 69.77%; the production profit of chemimechanical pulp was - 418 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 192.55 yuan/ton [35]. - Pulp Imports: In May 2025, the pulp import volume was 301.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% and a year - on - year increase of 6.95%; the cumulative import volume from January to May 2025 was 1555 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [37]. 3. Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - Downstream Tissue Paper Market: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 28.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.08%, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6% [39]. - Downstream Cultural Paper Market: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 7.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%; the offset paper production was 20.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47%, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8% [43]. - Downstream Packaging Paper Market: Last week, the whiteboard paper production capacity utilization rate continued to rise, the white cardboard remained flat, the corrugated paper production capacity utilization rate continued to rise, and the boxboard paper decreased [46][49]. - Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis: Last week, the tissue paper price remained stable, the cultural paper decreased slightly, the whiteboard paper decreased slightly, the white cardboard remained stable, the boxboard paper remained stable, and the corrugated paper decreased slightly [50][53][56]. - Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization Rate: In May 2025, the tissue paper and white cardboard capacity utilization rates decreased month - on - month, the offset paper slightly increased, the copperplate paper decreased, and the domestic pulp actual consumption slightly decreased [60][63][66]. 4. Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - Pulp Port Inventory: Last week, the domestic port inventory showed a cumulative trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples was 218.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. Among them, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port continued to accumulate inventory, and Tianjin Port reduced inventory [67][69]. - Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts: Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 24.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%, and the warehouse receipts in Shandong area increased slightly [71].