豆粕周报：远端偏紧预期支撑，连粕或震荡偏强-20250616

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT US soybean July contract rose 10.5 to close at 1068.5 cents per bushel, up 0.99%; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 31 to close at 3041 yuan per ton, up 1.03%; the South China soybean meal spot rose 60 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, up 2.13%; the rapeseed meal 09 contract rose 66 to close at 2674 yuan per ton, up 2.53%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot rose 80 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, up 3.23% [2][5]. - The US soybean fluctuated and declined during the week and then closed sharply higher. The USDA report did not adjust the US soybean balance sheet. The soybean production in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/2025 season remained unchanged. The precipitation forecast in the Midwest increased, the weather in the production areas was good, and the US soybean export sales were lower than expected, causing the US soybean to decline. On Friday, the US Environmental Protection Agency proposed to increase the future biodiesel usage, and the US soybean oil hit the daily limit, driving the US soybean to rise sharply. The China - US economic and trade consultation meeting ended, and the optimistic trade sentiment boosted. Long - positions continued to increase, but the upward momentum weakened. There is an expected supply shortage of US soybeans in the domestic fourth quarter, which supports the prices [2][5]. - The precipitation forecast in the US soybean production areas increases and is higher than the average level, which is beneficial to the early growth and development of soybeans, and the weather is normal. China and the US have reached a framework agreement, waiting for details. China has not purchased new - season US soybeans, and the far - month contracts are supported by the expected supply shortage. The US biodiesel policy exceeds expectations and proposes to restrict imports, and the US soybean oil hitting the daily limit supports the sharp rise of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal inventory continues to rise, and the spot supply is still available. With the expected supply shortage in the far - month, the downward support for the Dalian soybean meal is strong. In the short term, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and strengthen [2][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 6/13 | 6/6 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1068.50 | 1058.00 | 10.50 | 0.99% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 454.00 | 447.00 | 7.00 | 1.57% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 453.00 | 457.00 | - 4.00 | - 0.88% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Disk | 129.38 | 81.46 | 47.93 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3041.00 | 3010.00 | 31.00 | 1.03% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2674.00 | 2608.00 | 66.00 | 2.53% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 367.00 | 402.00 | - 35.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2860.00 | 2840.00 | 20.00 | 0.70% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2880.00 | 2820.00 | 60.00 | 2.13% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 161.00 | - 190.00 | 29.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The USDA report shows that the expected ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 295 million bushels, the same as the May expectation. The soybean production in Argentina in the 2024/2025 season remains at 49 million tons, and that in Brazil remains at 169 million tons. The report is overall neutral [6]. - As of the week ending June 8, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations, up from 67% the previous week and lower than 72% in the same period last year. The planting progress was 90%, lower than the expected 91%, up from 84% the previous week and higher than 86% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 88%. The emergence rate was 75%, up from 63% the previous week, higher than 68% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 72%. As of the week ending June 10, 2025, about 13% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, down from 16% the previous week and higher than 1% in the same period last year [6]. - As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 547,000 tons, higher than the market forecast of 155,000 - 400,000 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume is 45.19 million tons, compared with 40.54 million tons in the same period of the previous crop year. The net export sales of US soybeans in the current year increased by 61,000 tons, compared with 194,000 tons the previous week. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season is 48.71 million tons, with a sales progress of 96.8%, compared with 94.6% in the same period last year. The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in the current week was 58,000 tons, and the cumulative sales volume in this season is 1.118 million tons, compared with 1.04 million tons in the same period last year. China did not purchase old - season or new - season US soybeans in the current week, and the cumulative purchase volume of US soybeans by China in the 2024/2025 season remains at 22.48 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending June 6, 2025, the gross profit of US soybean crushing was 1.49 US dollars per bushel, down from 1.9 US dollars per bushel the previous week. The FOB price of soybean oil in central Illinois was 46.23 cents per pound, down from 47.97 cents per pound the previous week. The wholesale price of 48% soybean meal in central Illinois was 290.85 US dollars per short ton, up from 290.15 US dollars per short ton the previous week. The truck price of No. 1 yellow soybeans in central Illinois was 10.73 US dollars per bushel, up from 10.51 US dollars per bushel the previous week [8]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimates that the Brazilian soybean export volume in June will reach 14.08 million tons, an increase from the previous week's estimate of 12.55 million tons, compared with 13.83 million tons in the same period last year. The sales progress of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season in Mato Grosso state is 76.02%, compared with 77.9% in the same period last year. The sales progress of the 2025/2026 season soybean crop is 14.15%, lower than the five - year average of 25% and 16.51% in the same period last year [8]. - According to the report of the Buenos Aires Exchange, as of the week ending June 11, 2025, the soybean harvest progress in Argentina was 93.2%, up from 88.7% the previous week and lower than 96% in the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending June 6, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.1029 million tons, an increase of 274,100 tons from the previous week and 1.2088 million tons from the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons, an increase of 84,500 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 507,000 tons from the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 5.4305 million tons, an increase of 1.7376 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 10 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 7.462 million tons, an increase of 408,000 tons from the previous week and 1.0591 million tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the daily average trading volume of national soybean meal was 347,700 tons, including 90,620 tons of spot trading and 257,100 tons of forward trading, compared with 119,400 tons the previous week. The daily average picking - up volume of soybean meal was 194,760 tons, down from 201,200 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, up from 2.2446 million tons the previous week. The soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 6.83 days, up from 6.31 days the previous week [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that the soybean production in Argentina in the 2024/25 season will be 48.5 million tons. As of the end of May, the soybean harvest rate was 80.7%, and the early - sown soybean harvest was 86% complete. Due to recent precipitation, the soybean harvest in the northern part of Buenos Aires was the slowest. The estimated soybean yield is 3,090 kg per hectare (46.0 bushels per acre), with a yield range of 1,200 - 3,740 kg per hectare (17.8 - 55.7 bushels per acre) [11]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association maintains the forecast of Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season at 169.7 million tons, the soybean export volume at 108.2 million tons, the soybean oil production at 11.45 million tons, the soybean crushing volume at 57.5 million tons, the soybean oil export volume at 1.4 million tons, the soybean meal production at 44.1 million tons, and the soybean meal export volume at 23.6 million tons [11]. - The sales rate of the 2025/26 season soybean crop in Mato Grosso state has reached 14.15%, lower than the five - year average of about 25% and 16.51% in the same period last year. The report estimates that the soybean production in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season may reach 47.18 million tons. The sales rate of the 2024/25 season soybean crop in Mato Grosso state has reached 76%, lower than 77.90% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 82.39% [12]. - Affected by recent favorable rainfall, the estimated rapeseed production in the 27 EU countries and the UK in the 2025/26 season remains at 20.4 million tons, but the drought risk in Poland still exists. According to the short - term weather forecast, different weather patterns will appear in the next 10 days. Eastern and central Europe will face colder temperatures, while western/southern Europe will remain warm. Rainfall is expected only in Spain and the UK, and the rest of the countries are expected to return to a dry weather pattern, increasing drought concerns [12]. - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's National Commodity Supply Company estimates that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season will reach 169.6058 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.8845 million tons (14.8%) and a month - on - month increase of 1.264 million tons (0.8%). The sown area is expected to reach 47.6198 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.4702 million hectares (3.2%) and a month - on - month increase of 7,100 hectares. The estimated soybean yield is 3.56 tons per hectare, a year - on - year increase of 360.7 kg per hectare (11.3%) and a month - on - month increase of 26 kg per hectare (0.7%) [13]. - A consulting agency estimates that the rapeseed production in Canada in the 2025/26 season will be 18.2 million tons, with an estimated range of 16.5 - 20.1 million tons, almost the same as the previous estimate of 18 million tons (17.2 - 18.9 million tons). In the past two weeks, the main rapeseed - producing areas in the southern prairies of Canada have observed a precipitation shortage of about 33 mm, and the temperature is higher than the average level. These conditions have raised concerns about the early soil moisture conditions of rapeseed. Looking forward, the weather forecast for the next 10 days shows that the southern prairie region of Canada will have mild temperatures, and moderate rainfall is expected in Saskatchewan and Alberta, which may help relieve the current drought and support crop growth. In Manitoba, the drought is expected to continue, with a possible precipitation shortage of 35 mm [14].