海外发运高位，铁矿震荡偏弱

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply side shows that the overseas shipment volume rebounded last week, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years. On the demand side, steel mills' furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season have increased recently, leading to a continuous decline in molten iron production. With the steel demand entering the off - season, the molten iron output is decreasing while the supply is strong [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 2969 yuan/ton, a decline of 6 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.20%. The total trading volume was 8652225 lots, and the total open interest was 3086173 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3082 yuan/ton, a decline of 10 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.32%. The total trading volume was 2922804 lots, and the total open interest was 1566756 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 704.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.5 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.49%. The total trading volume was 1262009 lots, and the total open interest was 716699 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 774.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.0 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.51%. The total trading volume was 6009851 lots, and the total open interest was 695773 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1349.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.0 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.07%. The total trading volume was 158036 lots, and the total open interest was 56573 lots [2]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the iron ore futures showed a fluctuating trend. The molten iron output decreased slightly. The positive news from the Sino - US negotiations had limited boost to the market. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 719 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 613 yuan/ton, also a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - grade PB powder and low - grade Super Special powder was 106 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, steel mills' furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season increased. The molten iron output continued to decline. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.36 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.05 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.66 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 241.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.30 tons [1][4]. - On the supply side, the overseas shipment volume rebounded last week, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years. The global iron ore shipment volume was 3510.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.4 tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2919.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50.6 tons. The total shipment volume from Australia was 2169.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 249.3 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1892.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 392.2 tons. The total shipment volume from Brazil was 749.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 198.7 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14503.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.83 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 315.25 tons, a decrease of 13.81 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - On June 6, the Western Range Iron Ore Project jointly developed by Rio Tinto Group and Baowu Resources was officially put into operation. The project can produce up to 25 million tons of iron ore per year, with a total production capacity of 130 million tons and an average iron grade of about 62% [9]. - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK. The two sides had a frank and in - depth dialogue, exchanged in - depth views on economic and trade issues of concern, reached a principle consensus on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in resolving each other's economic and trade concerns [9]. - On June 13, 2025, the Israeli Air Force launched air strikes on dozens of targets related to Iran's nuclear program and other military facilities in Iran and named the operation "Lion's Strength". The Israeli military said that Iran had enough enriched uranium to manufacture multiple bombs within a few days, so action was needed to address this "imminent threat" [9]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes a series of charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis trends, iron ore futures and spot prices, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and other aspects [8][10][12].