豆粕周报：美国生柴政策利好，美豆及连粕震荡走高-20250616

Report Overview - Report Title: "US Biodiesel Policy Benefits, US Soybeans and Dalian Soybean Meal Fluctuate Higher" [1] - Report Date: June 16, 2025 - Report Author: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Group [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal continued to rebound. The June USDA report had a neutral impact, but the biodiesel policy stimulated short - term US soybeans to fluctuate strongly. From May to July in China, soybean supply is sufficient, and the spot supply of soybean meal is generally loose. Currently, downstream提货 is strong, and the spot shows fluctuations. In the fourth quarter, as oil mills start procurement, the rising Brazilian soybean premium will push up the import cost of Dalian soybean meal. In the long - term, the reduction of US soybean planting area is basically certain, which supports the bullish sentiment for far - month soybean meal. It is recommended to buy far - month soybean meal at low prices. Specifically, continue to buy soybean meal 09 at low prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - The June USDA report was neutral, with no adjustments to new - crop US soybeans and old - crop South American soybeans. The market focused on US soybean exports and new - crop growth. Last week, US soybean export net sales were 11.9 tons, in line with expectations but down significantly from the previous week. The good weather in US soybean - producing areas put pressure on US soybeans. However, the US biodiesel policy increased the blending volume in the next two years, boosting US soybeans [6]. - In China, 13.92 million tons of soybeans were imported in May. The large arrival of soybeans supported the oil mills' operating rate to return to normal, resulting in a loose spot supply of soybean meal. Meanwhile, strong downstream transactions and pick - ups supported the spot price. Oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories entered an accumulation cycle, with soybean inventory at 6.1029 million tons, an increase of 274,100 tons from the previous week, and soybean meal inventory at 382,500 tons, an increase of 84,500 tons [6]. 3.2 Market Review - As of June 13, CBOT soybeans closed at 1068.50 cents per bushel, up 10.50 points from the previous week, a weekly increase of 0.99%. M2509 soybean meal closed at 3041 yuan per ton, up 31 points from the previous week, a weekly increase of 1.03% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - Weather and Sowing: In the next two weeks, there will be sufficient rainfall and slightly higher temperatures in US soybean - producing areas. As of the week of June 8, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, in line with market expectations; the planting rate was 90%, lower than the expected 91% [13][21]. - US Soybean Exports: As of the week of June 5, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/2025 season were 61,000 tons, down from 194,000 tons in the previous week; for the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 58,000 tons, up from 4,000 tons in the previous week [13][25]. - Argentine Soybeans: As of June 12, the Argentine soybean harvest rate was 95%, up from 91% last week [13][28]. - Brazilian Soybeans: The estimated Brazilian soybean exports in June 2025 are 14.08 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons year - on - year. As the sales pressure eases, the near - month soybean premium has gradually stabilized [34]. Supply - In the 23rd week (May 31 - June 6), a total of 39 ships, about 2.535 million tons of soybeans, arrived at domestic full - sample oil mills [13][37]. Demand - In the 24th week (June 7 - 13), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%, 28,600 tons lower than the estimate. In the same week, soybean meal transactions increased to 1.7385 million tons, and pick - ups increased to 973,800 tons [13][42]. Inventory - In the 23rd week, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased to 6.1029 million tons, an increase of 274,100 tons from the previous week, a 4.70% increase. The soybean meal inventory increased to 382,500 tons, an increase of 84,500 tons from the previous week, a 28.36% increase [13][45]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report mentions spread tracking items such as soybean meal basis (Jiangsu), oil - meal ratio, soybean meal 9 - 1 spread, and soybean - rapeseed meal spread, but no specific data analysis is provided [48][50][53].