碳酸锂周报20250616：多空存分歧，碳酸锂窄幅震荡-20250616

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 656 tons week - on - week to 18,100 tons. There is an incremental expectation for non - integrated supply in June due to the reduction in lithium ore costs. In May, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 9,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 38%. The domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1,117 tons week - on - week to 133,500 tons, with smelters and other sectors having a slight inventory build - up, and the overall inventory remaining at a high level. In the medium - to - long term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years is still large [5][6]. - In June, downstream demand was basically flat month - on - month. The production schedule of the power sector declined, while there was a certain behavior of rush - exporting for energy - storage cells. The terminal market maintained a relatively fast growth rate. In May, the sales volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China was 1.307 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.9% [6]. - This week, the price of spodumene concentrate was basically flat week - on - week, while the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 3.4% week - on - week. Overseas mines had a strong sentiment of price support, but downstream lithium salt plants had low willingness to take delivery [6]. - Considering the decrease in imported lithium carbonate, it is expected that the supply and demand will be in a tight balance or there will be a slight inventory reduction in June, but the medium - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. Near the end of the second quarter, both upstream and downstream have certain inventory management needs. The high inventory exerts a certain suppression on lithium prices, but further downward movement is likely to trigger supply disturbances. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate. In the medium term, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the trends at the mine end [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply Side - Lithium Spodumene Import Volume in April Increased Slightly Month - on - Month: From January to April, China imported 2.315 million tons of lithium spodumene. In April, the import volume was 622,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. Among them, 1.179 million tons were imported from Australia, accounting for 50.9%; 343,000 tons from South Africa, accounting for 14.3%; and 315,000 tons from Zimbabwe, accounting for 13.6% [10]. - The Decline of Lithium Concentrate Slowed Down: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate was basically flat week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 3.4% week - on - week. Overseas mines on the spodumene side had a strong sentiment of price support, with the SC6 quotation remaining above $630 per ton. Some traders were eager to sell due to factors such as hedging or inventory pressure [13]. - Domestic Lithium Carbonate Production in June May Slightly Increase Month - on - Month: In May, the total production of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 2% month - on - month and increased by 15% year - on - year. By raw material, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and recycling decreased by 4% and 13% month - on - month respectively, while the production from lepidolite and salt lakes increased by 2% and 3% month - on - month respectively. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production will slightly increase month - on - month in June as the profitability of subcontractors has recovered and the production of the salt - lake sector has increased with the warming weather [17]. - Lithium Carbonate Import Volume and Its Changes: From January to April, China imported 78,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year increase of 26.8%. Among them, 53,200 tons were imported from Chile, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, and 22,600 tons from Argentina, a year - on - year increase of 80.7%. According to Chilean customs, in May, the scale of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38%. It is expected that this part of lithium carbonate will arrive in China from late June to July [20]. - Spot Prices Were Basically Flat Week - on - Week: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,700 yuan per ton, basically flat week - on - week. Market transactions were relatively dull. Lithium salt plants were reluctant to sell at low prices, but downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,050 yuan per ton, also basically flat week - on - week [21]. Demand Side - The Global New - Energy Vehicle Market Started Well: The new - energy vehicle industry accounts for about 62% of the global lithium carbonate demand. In the first quarter of 2025, the global sales volume of electric vehicles was 4.1 million, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Among them, the sales volume in Europe was 900,000, a year - on - year increase of 22%; in North America, 500,000, a year - on - year increase of 16%; and in China, 2.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 36%. The markets in China and Europe had strong growth, while the growth rate in the United States declined due to political factors [26]. - The Production of Power Batteries Maintained a High Growth Rate: In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03% and a year - on - year increase of 49.0%. From January to April, the cumulative production was 444.6 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 67.1%. From January to April, the cumulative sales volume was 403.9 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 73.7%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of power batteries was 303.9 GWh, accounting for 75.2% of the total sales volume, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 56.8%; the cumulative sales volume of other batteries was 100.0 GWh, accounting for 24.8% of the total sales volume, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 157.8% [36]. - The Year - on - Year Increase of Domestic Mobile Phone Shipments Was Slight: In the first quarter of 2025, the shipment volume of the domestic smartphone market was 71.6 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. From January to December 2024, the production volume of electronic computer units in the first quarter was 85.322 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, showing positive growth for two consecutive quarters, which was driven by the upgrading of the entire industrial chain under the impetus of technologies such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence [41]. - The Energy - Storage Installation in May Maintained a High Growth Rate: According to incomplete statistics from CNESA DataLink, in May this year, the newly commissioned installed capacity of new - energy storage projects in China totaled 6.32 GW/15.85 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 193%/228%. The "531" rush - installation contributed a certain increment. The joint release of the "Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting the Development of New - Energy Storage" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration clarified that "new - energy projects should not be required to be equipped with energy storage compulsorily". After the cancellation of the compulsory energy - storage installation, the energy - storage installation ratio will decrease, which may affect the demand for lithium iron phosphate by about 3% [46]. - The Downstream Production Schedule in June Increased Slightly Month - on - Month: This week, the theoretical production profit of ternary material enterprises was 3,430 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40 yuan per ton compared with last week. The profit of ternary material enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, but the overall profitability was not optimistic. According to research, downstream demand in June may increase slightly month - on - month. The production schedule at the power end declined, and there was a certain behavior of rush - exporting for energy - storage cells [52]. Other Indicators - The Cost of Non - Integrated Lithium Salt Plants Was Inverted: Recently, as the price of lithium concentrate stabilized, the production cost of lithium salt plants increased slightly. The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene was 70,242 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 779 yuan per ton. At the current lithium price, manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene have fallen into losses. The theoretical production profit was - 9,442 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 679 yuan per ton [49]. - The Basis Widened This Week: This week, the basis of lithium carbonate was 710, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. The closing price of the main futures contract of lithium carbonate was 59,940 yuan per ton, and the basis of the contract widened. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was flat week - on - week, at 1,600 yuan per ton [55]. - The Spread Between Contracts Narrowed: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the spread between the first - month and near - month contracts was negative. The spread between the first - month and near - month contracts was - 40, an increase of 340 compared with last week, and the spreads between different contracts narrowed [59].