6月USDA影响偏多，短期郑棉仍处震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, cotton prices showed a volatile trend. The June USDA report had a bullish impact on the market as it lowered the expected harvested area and yield per unit of US cotton, reducing the expected production to 14 million bales and the ending stocks by 900,000 bales to 4.3 million bales. However, the net sales of US cotton exports last week were only 96,300 bales, a significant decrease from the previous week. Coupled with favorable weather conditions in the US cotton - growing regions recently, US cotton prices were under pressure. With both bullish and bearish factors at play, US cotton prices fluctuated weakly [6]. - In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory was continuously being depleted, and the import of cotton was relatively low. Meanwhile, the downstream demand was in the off - season. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, there was little improvement in cotton prices. Currently, the sowing of new - season cotton in Xinjiang was completed, and the weather in the growing regions was normal, with cotton growing well. - Strategy: With the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors, US cotton prices will continue to fluctuate. In the domestic market, the sowing of new cotton is completed, and the weather in the growing regions is favorable. At the same time, the commercial inventory is continuously being depleted, and cotton imports are relatively low. Under the weak supply - demand situation, cotton prices will basically remain stable. Waiting for new market guidance, Zhengzhou cotton futures will continue to fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of the close on June 13, the ICE US cotton 07 contract closed at 67.90 cents per pound, down 0.424 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.35%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,495 yuan per ton, up 135 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly increase of 1.01% [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - US Cotton Sowing: As of the week of June 8, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 49%, the same as the previous week, compared with 56% in the same period last year. The planting rate was 76%, up from 66% the previous week, compared with 79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 80%. The squaring rate was 12%, up from 8% the previous week, compared with 13% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 12% [12][16]. - US Cotton Exports: As of the week of June 5, the net sales of US 2024/2025 upland cotton exports were 60,000 bales, down from 110,000 bales the previous week; the net sales of 2025/2026 upland cotton were 36,000 bales, down from 39,000 bales the previous week [12][20]. - Domestic Spinning Mills' Operation: As of June 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%. The operating rate of spinning mills decreased significantly. Spinning mills had limited orders, with the operating rate of small and medium - sized spinning mills in the inland areas dropping to 50% - 60%, while that of Xinjiang spinning mills remained stable at 80% - 90% [12][23]. - Domestic Spinning Mills' Inventory: As of the week of June 12, the inventory of cotton in mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 28.3 days of consumption. The yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 30.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%. The operating rate of downstream fabric mills decreased significantly, and raw material procurement slowed down. The raw material inventory of spinning mills showed an accumulating trend, with the inventory of some large mills in Xinjiang being about 35 - 40 days, and that of inland enterprises being about 15 - 25 days [12][27]. - Domestic Cotton Inventory: As of June 13, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 3.098 million tons, a decrease of 111,200 tons (a decline of 3.47%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 2.2064 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 96,600 tons (a decline of 4.19%), and the commercial cotton inventory in the inland areas was 448,500 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of June 12, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.19% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 443,100 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [30]. 3.3 Spread Tracking The report mentioned the tracking of cotton basis, 9 - 1 spread of cotton, cotton - yarn spread, and domestic - foreign cotton spread, but did not provide specific data [34][35].