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需求逐渐转淡，铜价高位压力渐显
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-16 09:03
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, copper prices retreated from their highs, facing resistance around 79,500. The spot premium was under pressure, and the destocking of social inventories slowed down. The increase in steel and aluminum tariffs in the US did not strongly drive up the copper market. The US economy awaits "hard data," with the manufacturing sector declining, and employment changes should be monitored. The Fed's previous three interest rate cuts were "preventive," but there is a chance the next one could be a "recessionary" cut. [5][84] - In terms of the industrial fundamentals, the issue of low refining processing fees due to raw material supply remains severe, but it has not restricted the actual output of refined copper, with May's refined copper production hitting a new high. Domestic demand is seasonally weakening, the copper product operating rate is declining, and the momentum for further destocking of social inventories is weakening. Currently, the copper fundamentals mainly focus on international trade games, and the siphon effect of US copper prices is leading to continuous destocking of LME copper inventories. [5][84] - Overall, after copper prices faced resistance at high levels and reduced positions to decline, the macro - situation remains under pressure, and fundamental demand has weakened. Consider taking profit on near - month sold CALL options next week and continue to hold far - month bought PUT options. [5][84] 3. Summary According to the Directory Macro - level - In May 2025, the European manufacturing PMI remained stable, and the US manufacturing PMI rebounded. The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4%, up 0.4% from the previous month; Germany's manufacturing increased by 0.4% to 48.8%, and France's by 0.8% to 49.5%. The US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3%, up 2.1 percentage points month - on - month. China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, but still below the boom - bust line for two consecutive months. New orders and new export orders were still weak, and demand was under pressure due to tariff games. [12] - Although the US raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, which strengthened the tariff expectation for copper in the 232 investigation, the impact on the copper market was not as strong as the previous time, and it was not enough to continuously drive up the market. The US economy awaits "hard data," with the manufacturing sector declining, and employment changes should be monitored. [5][13][84] Industry Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - In December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%. From January to December 2024, global copper concentrate production was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. In March 2025, global copper mine production was 1.969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.69%. In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons, and in February, it was 180,000 tons. [21] - In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, China's cumulative imports of copper ores and concentrates were 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In April 2025, China imported 2.924 million tons of copper ores and concentrates; from January to April, China imported 10.031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. [24] TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - As of June 13, the copper concentrate index (weekly) was reported at - 44.75 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 1.46 US dollars per dry ton from the previous period. The spot market trading of copper concentrates was inactive this week. [29] Refined Copper Production - In May, SMM's domestic electrolytic copper production increased by 12,600 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.12%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. From January to May, the cumulative production increased by 544,800 tons, an increase of 11.09%. In June, it is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production will decrease by 7,200 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.63%, and a year - on - year increase of 126,100 tons, an increase of 12.55%. From January to June, the cumulative production is expected to increase by 670,900 tons, an increase of 11.34%. [37] Refined Copper Imports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%. In December 2024, imports were 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. In December 2024, exports were 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In April 2025, China imported 250,000 tons of electrolytic copper, a month - on - month decrease of 19.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. [43] Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China's imports of copper scrap and fragments were 217,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. In April 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and fragments showed a "month - on - month recovery and year - on - year contraction" trend, with a single - month import of 204,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92% but a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%. From January to April, cumulative imports were 777,000 tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.81%. The supply of recycled copper raw materials in the market is still very tight. [46] Consumption - end - Power and Grid Investment: In 2024, from January to December, power investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. In 2025, from January to April, power investment was 193.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and grid investment was 140.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. [52] - Air - conditioners: In December 2024, the monthly air - conditioner production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. In 2025, from January to April, the air - conditioner production was 105.314 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of monthly production slowed down. [56] - Automobiles: In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May, automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9%. In May 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9%. From January to May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44%. [60] - Real Estate: In 2024, from January to December, the real estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In May 2025, the real estate completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, and the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year. [62] Other Elements Inventory - As of June 13, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 412,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 15,200 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 114,500 tons, SHFE inventory increased by 5,461 tons to 101,900 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 8,170 tons to 196,000 tons. As of June 12, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 59,700 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from last week. [64] CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions - As of June 10, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 26,351 lots, a weekly increase of 2,257 lots. The non - commercial long position was 72,101 lots, a weekly increase of 852 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 45,750 lots, a weekly decrease of 1,405 lots. [68] Premiums and Discounts - As of June 13, the LME copper spot premium was 73.41 US dollars per ton. The LME copper spot turned to a premium and rose. The LME copper inventory is shifting in two directions, with some Asian copper inventory flowing to the US market and some European Russian copper inventory flowing to the Chinese market. [78] - During the week, copper prices first rose and then fell, and the spot premium stopped falling and rebounded. Next week, it is expected that there will be concentrated arrivals of goods such as those from Russia. After the contract change, the spot will still start with a high - premium quote, but the transaction is expected to gradually fall back to around 100 yuan per ton. [78] Basis - As of June 13, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous average price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 1,080 yuan per ton. [80] Market Outlook - Macro - level: Copper prices retreated from their highs this week, facing resistance around 79,500. The spot premium was under pressure, and the destocking of social inventories slowed down. The increase in steel and aluminum tariffs in the US was not enough to continuously drive up the market. The US economy awaits "hard data," with the manufacturing sector declining, and employment changes should be monitored. There is a chance that the Fed's next interest rate cut could be a "recessionary" cut. [5][84] - Industry fundamentals: The issue of low refining processing fees due to raw material supply remains severe, but it has not restricted the actual output of refined copper, with May's refined copper production hitting a new high. Domestic demand is seasonally weakening, the copper product operating rate is declining, and the momentum for further destocking of social inventories is weakening. The copper fundamentals mainly focus on international trade games, and the siphon effect of US copper prices is leading to continuous destocking of LME copper inventories. [5][84] - Strategy: Overall, after copper prices faced resistance at high levels and reduced positions to decline, the macro - situation remains under pressure, and fundamental demand has weakened. Consider taking profit on near - month sold CALL options next week and continue to hold far - month bought PUT options. [5][84]