Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (2025-06-16): Supply-Demand Structure Weakens, Black Market in Weak Oscillation [1] Research Team - Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center, Black Industry Group [2] - Researchers: Xie Chen, Yang Hui [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - The supply-demand structure of steel products continues to weaken this week, and it is expected that the black market will remain in a weak operation overall. Maintain a bearish view and cash in some profits when a new low is reached [7]. - Last week, the supply of iron ore improved, demand continued to slow down, and the supply-demand pattern weakened overall. This week, it may still trade on the logic of inventory accumulation of building materials in the off-season, and ore prices will remain in a weak operation. Maintain a shorting strategy, add short positions moderately on rebounds, and hold them in the medium term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Last week, rebar was still operating at a low level below 3000, and the market sentiment remained weak. The 10 - contract fell 6 to close at 2969. The spot price oscillated, with rebar in East China reported at 3080 yuan/ton, down 40 week - on - week [12]. 1.2 Supply - The output of blast furnaces decreased slightly, and electric furnaces continued to cut production. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased for five consecutive weeks. The average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. Short - process steel mills still face large - scale losses, and production cuts are expected to continue. Rebar production decreased, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 4.1 tons to 324.7 tons week - on - week [18][21][25]. 1.3 Demand - Building material demand decreased month - on - month, and the domestic demand for plates also weakened. The capital availability rate of construction sites decreased, and the actual demand for building materials decreased significantly due to the off - season and bad weather. The domestic demand for hot - rolled coils may decline faster in the consumption off - season, and the manufacturing industry faces increasing downward pressure [28][32]. 1.4 Profit - The profit of long - process steel remained at a high level, while the profit of electric furnaces continued to decline. The profit of long - process building materials was around 70 - 100, and the profit of hot - rolled coils was around 150 - 200. As of the 13th, the national average profit of short - process was - 124 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was - 21 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton day - on - day [36]. 1.5 Inventory - The inventory reduction speed of building materials was average, and the inventory of plates continued to accumulate. Rebar social and steel mill inventories decreased, while hot - rolled coil factory and social inventories increased [39][43]. 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar narrowed significantly. The current rebar 10 basis is 101, narrowing 54 from last week. Continue to hold reverse arbitrage positions and pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity around 80 [48]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread narrowed by 3 to 1, and the inverted situation was completely reversed. The near - month contract faces off - season pressure, and the far - month contract also faces trade conflict interference. The price difference is expected to fluctuate around par [52]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has no obvious driving force to continue narrowing. The current futures spread is 113, narrowing 4 from last week, and the spot spread is 90, remaining the same as last week. The spread is at a neutral level, and no operation is recommended [55]. 2. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Iron ore prices oscillated downward, and the futures price rebounded at a low level. Last week, iron ore oscillated weakly, the 09 contract fell 4.5 to close at 703, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port fell 13 to 720 yuan/ton [60]. 2.2 Supply - The shipments from Australia and Brazil were flat, and the arrivals continued to increase. The global iron ore shipments in the current period were 3510.4 tons, up 79 tons week - on - week. The arrivals at 47 ports increased, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past three years [63][69]. 2.3 Demand - The rigid demand decreased as blast furnace output declined, and the speculative demand also decreased as port transactions declined. The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 241.61 tons/day, down 0.19 tons/day week - on - week. The daily average port transaction volume was 94.9 tons, down 2 tons week - on - week [72][75]. 2.4 Inventory - Port inventory increased, and downstream inventory also increased. The inventory at 47 ports increased by 103 tons to 14503.14 tons, and the inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills increased by 130.63 tons [78][81]. 2.5 Shipping - The freight from Brazil to China increased. The freight from Western Australia to China was 10.3 dollars/ton, remaining basically the same, while the freight from Brazil to China was 26.3 dollars/ton, up 1.8 dollars/ton week - on - week [84]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore narrowed slightly, and the basis also decreased. The 9 - 1 spread was 33, narrowing 3 from last week, and the 09 contract discount was 35, narrowing 6 from last week [86].
钢矿周度报告2025-06-16:供需结构转弱,黑色弱势震荡-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-16 09:04