玻璃纯碱周报：短期偏弱，预防宏观事件扰动，纯碱，基本面偏空，轻仓参与-20250616

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Short - term weakness, beware of macro - event disturbances [1] - Soda Ash: Bearish fundamentals, recommend light - position participation [1] 2. Core Views - Soda Ash: Demand is relatively stable, but supply is gradually increasing. With high inventory and the expectation of new capacity coming online, the overall situation is one of supply - demand surplus. Maintain a bearish view, but trade with a light position due to the relatively low price level [4] - Glass: Inventory accumulation has slightly decreased, demand remains weak before the rainy season, and recent macro risks have increased significantly. Attention should be paid to short - term risk prevention [41] 3. Soda Ash Summary 3.1 Price - Spot prices are weak this week, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remains stable. In the mainstream trading areas, North China heavy soda ash is 1400 (-50), and East China heavy soda ash is 1375 (-25). The national average price of heavy soda ash is 1350, and that of light soda ash is 1318, with a price difference of +33 (-1) [5] - Futures prices declined. The closing price of the main SA2509 contract is 1156 (-56), the 9 - 1 spread is +3 (-11), and the basis of the main 09 contract is +165 (+32) (using the national average price of heavy soda ash) [10] 3.2 Supply - Last week, soda ash production was 70.41 tons (+1.90, +2.70%), including 32.19 tons of light soda ash (+0.66) and 38.22 tons of heavy soda ash (+1.24). The operating rate was 80.76% (+2.19%), with the ammonia - soda method at 79.3% (+7.89%) and the combined - soda method at 80.41% (+3.87%) [4][16] 3.3 Demand - Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 68.56 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25%; the overall production - sales ratio was 92.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.58%. Demand slightly weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid needs. Next week, float glass production is expected to increase slightly, while photovoltaic glass production is expected to decrease. In April, soda ash imports were 0.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 tons; exports were 17.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.51 tons, with a decrease in net exports [4][25] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, soda ash enterprise inventory was 168.63 tons (+5.93, +3.64%), including 81.13 tons of light soda ash inventory (+2.13) and 87.50 tons of heavy soda ash inventory (+3.80). Both light and heavy soda ash inventories increased [4][32] 3.5 Cost - Profit - Last week, the profit of the combined - soda method (double - ton) was 139.5 yuan/ton (-38.5); the profit of the ammonia - soda method was +20.70 yuan/ton (-29.2), showing a slight overall decrease [4][38] 4. Glass Summary 4.1 Price - Spot prices were stable with a weakening trend last week. The ex - factory price of Wuhan Changli's 5mm glass was 1100 (-0), and that of Shahe Anquan's 5mm glass was 1056 (-20), with a price difference of +44 (+20) [42] - The main 2509 contract closed at 996 (-21), the 9 - 1 spread was -59 (-2), and the basis of the main 09 contract was +124 (+21) (using the ex - factory price of Wuhan Changli as the spot benchmark) [41][48] 4.2 Supply - Last week, the daily production of float glass in operation was 15.57 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70%. Float glass production was 109.12 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61%. The operating rate was 75.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75%. There were 297 domestic glass production lines after excluding zombie lines, with 224 in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut down [41][53] 4.3 Demand - As of the end of May, the order days of deep - processing enterprises were 10.35 days, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous period. The resumption of production of tempering enterprises was slow. The recovery trend at the end of the real estate sector has significantly weakened, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.9% in the completion end from January to April, and the willingness for new construction at the front end remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.8% from January to April. According to CAAM data, in May, automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 1.15% and 3.71% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 11.68% and 11.13% respectively, which is at a relatively high level in recent years [41][63] 4.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.685 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10%. Inventory decreased slightly in North China and East China, while it increased in other regions [41][71] 4.5 Cost - Profit - Last week, the profit of coal - gas - made float glass was +80.72 yuan/ton (-10.24); the profit of natural - gas - made float glass was -182.83 yuan/ton (-12.15); the profit of petroleum - coke - made float glass was -128.47 yuan/ton (-17.17). The industry profit decreased slightly in the short term [41][84]