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有色金属套利周报20250616-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-16 09:03

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250616 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Consultation Numbers: Z0010675, Z0016959 [2] - Email: wangyh@zxqh.net, zhangjf@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Due to lackluster demand and the impact of the production cycle of domestic and foreign zinc mines, the fundamental pressure on zinc is gradually accumulating. The supply - demand balance of zinc tends to shift towards surplus. It is recommended to participate in the long - aluminum and short - zinc strategy on dips and consider the inter - period positive spread of zinc if the annual demand has no significant highlights [4] Section Summaries 1. Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - Price Review: From 2025/6/6 to 2025/6/13, LME copper decreased by 0.24%, LME aluminum increased by 2.10%, LME zinc decreased by 1.35%, LME lead increased by 0.94%, LME nickel decreased by 2.45%, LME tin increased by 1.63%. SHFE copper decreased by 1.17%, SHFE aluminum increased by 1.84%, SHFE zinc decreased by 2.55%, SHFE lead increased by 0.98%, SHFE nickel decreased by 1.87%, SHFE tin increased by 0.03% [8] - Fund Flow: Most non - ferrous metals' unilateral open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. The unilateral open interest of aluminum, zinc, and nickel increased by 15.3%, 27.7%, and 7.0% respectively this week, while that of copper and lead decreased by 3.1% and 4.6% respectively. All major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10] 2. Non - ferrous Metals Inventory and Profit - Inventory: From 2025/6/6 to 2025/6/13, LME copper inventory decreased by 13.54%, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2.92%, LME zinc inventory decreased by 4.36%, LME lead inventory decreased by 5.80%, LME nickel inventory decreased by 1.28%, LME tin inventory decreased by 7.38% [26] - Profit: Copper processing fees decreased slightly week - on - week, and smelters' losses were 2,722 yuan/ton with little change in losses week - on - week. The theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 18,773 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose to 1,987 yuan/ton. The imported processing fees of zinc were flat week - on - week, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was 840 yuan/ton [41] 3. Non - ferrous Metals Basis and Term Structure - Basis: As of 2025/6/13, the copper basis was 1,080, the aluminum basis was 320, the zinc basis was 455, the lead basis was 15, the nickel basis was 1,920, and the tin basis was 1,990 [44] - LME Premium/Discount: Data on LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin premium/discount (0 - 3) is presented from 2019 - 2025 [52] - Term Structure: This week, nickel was in a Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in a Back structure. The spreads between the first - nearby contracts of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin changed compared to last week [59] 4. Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio: The domestic - to - overseas ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the domestic - to - overseas ratios of major metals showed mixed changes. The ratios for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 1.13, 1.14, 1.16, 1.18, 1.11, and 1.12 respectively [77] - Import Profit/Loss: This week, the import profit of lead was 321, while the import profits of other major metals were negative. Factors to consider for domestic - overseas arbitrage include the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, domestic and overseas inventory comparisons, and expectations of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [77] 5. Changes in Non - ferrous Metals Cross - variety Ratios - The report provides the current values, values three months ago, and values one year ago of cross - variety ratios and differences among copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, along with their respective quantiles [94]