市场快讯：伊以地缘冲突持续，甲醇期价快速拉升

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of June 16th, the main methanol futures have risen rapidly, with the 08 - contract almost hitting the daily limit and a gain of over 4% [3]. - The rise is mainly due to the Israel - Iran conflict, which has raised concerns about potential impacts on Iran's major crude oil - producing areas, leading to a brief increase in oil prices and a shift upwards in the energy - chemical sector. The Fajr Jam gas refinery had two explosions, causing a temporary halt in the daily production of 12 million cubic meters of natural gas from the South Pars Phase 14 project [3]. - The temporary interruption of natural gas production in South Pars, Iran, has led to the shutdown of 4 methanol plants with a total capacity of 6.6 million tons, and the remaining plants are operating at low loads, resulting in a temporary interruption of Iran's methanol supply. Iran accounts for about 30% of China's methanol imports [3]. - China's domestic methanol production remains high, with an estimated import of 1.2 - 1.3 million tons in June, and the profit on the demand side has been significantly compressed. Attention should be paid to potential negative feedback from downstream industries after the continuous rise of methanol [3]. - The operation suggestion is to hold existing long positions and be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Wait for a pull - back to establish long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Reasons for the Rise of Methanol Futures - Geopolitical factors: The Israel - Iran conflict has made the market worried about Iran's oil - producing areas, causing a short - term increase in oil prices and driving up the energy - chemical sector. The Fajr Jam gas refinery explosion led to a halt in 12 million cubic meters of daily natural gas production from the South Pars Phase 14 project [3]. - Supply factors: The temporary interruption of South Pars' natural gas production led to the shutdown of 4 methanol plants in Iran with a total capacity of 6.6 million tons and low - load operation of the remaining plants, interrupting Iran's methanol supply [3]. Domestic Market Situation - Production and import: Domestic methanol production remains high, and an import of 1.2 - 1.3 million tons is expected in June [3]. - Demand: The profit on the demand side has been significantly compressed, and there may be negative feedback from downstream industries after the continuous rise of methanol [3]. Operation Suggestion - Hold existing long positions and be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Wait for a pull - back to establish long positions [3].