银行行业月报：关注财政投放节奏-20250616

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [23]. Core Insights - In May, the social financing (社融) stock growth rate was 8.7%, remaining stable compared to April, with new social financing of 2.29 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 0.2 trillion yuan year-on-year. This growth is primarily driven by policy factors, particularly the accelerated issuance of government bonds [3][10]. - The net financing scale of government bonds in May was 1.46 trillion yuan, also reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2 trillion yuan. The total social financing stock reached 426 trillion yuan by the end of May [3][10]. - Demand from enterprises remains weak, with new loans to enterprises in May amounting to 530 billion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous year. However, short-term loans and bond financing showed some improvement due to low base effects and policy influences [3][15]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Growth - The social financing stock growth rate in May was 8.7%, consistent with April's rate, with a total stock of 426 trillion yuan [3][10]. - New RMB loans in May totaled 620 billion yuan, significantly lower than the 960 billion yuan in May 2024, with the total loan balance reaching 266.3 trillion yuan, growing at 7.1% year-on-year [12][14]. Investment Strategy - Fiscal deposits remain high, indicating potential for further fiscal spending, which is expected to support economic growth. The focus of monetary policy is on the implementation of existing policies, with a need to monitor the recovery of demand [4][20]. - The banking sector's performance is anticipated to gradually recover due to the positive contribution of deposit repricing to net interest margins and a decrease in bond market volatility [4][20]. M1 and M2 Growth - M2 growth in May was 7.9%, with a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous month. M1 growth was 2.3%, showing an increase of 0.8% from the previous month, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year [19][22].