褪色的霸权：美元走弱下的资产配置启示：1970年以来七轮美元趋势走弱下的资产行情复盘

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing likelihood of a weaker dollar due to misaligned monetary policies and challenges in the dollar's external circulation system [2][4][69] - It reviews seven significant periods of dollar depreciation since 1970, emphasizing the impact on various asset classes, particularly commodities and non-US equities [3][9][62] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the foreign exchange market, commodities, and non-US equity markets as the dollar weakens [4][62][70] Group 2 - The historical analysis indicates that during periods of dollar weakness, commodities consistently outperform, driven by a shift in investment towards tangible assets [63][62] - Non-US equity markets, particularly in emerging economies, tend to benefit from capital inflows and improved economic conditions during dollar depreciation phases [63][62] - The report identifies specific periods where asset performance varied significantly, with Asian markets often outperforming European markets during dollar weakness [14][23][35] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the potential for a new trend of dollar depreciation, driven by factors such as the narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and other economies [69][70] - It notes that the eurozone is likely to benefit the most from the rebalancing of dollar-denominated assets, as fiscal expansion in the region is expected to enhance economic prospects [77][79] - The analysis suggests that as the dollar weakens, there will be an increase in hedging against dollar exposure, further supporting the appreciation of currencies from regions holding significant US assets [77][79]