中国宏观数据点评：5月消费表现强劲，但投资和生产数据逊于预期

Economic Performance - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, up from 5.1% in April, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%[2] - The growth rate of fixed asset investment fell to 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the market expectation and April's figure of 4.0%[3] - Industrial production growth declined to 5.8% in May from 6.1% in April, also below the expected 6.0%[7] Consumer Trends - The sales growth of communication equipment surged to 33.0% in May, up from 19.9% in April, while home appliance sales jumped to 53.0% from 38.8%[2] - Restaurant consumption growth rose to 5.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from April[2] - The consumer price index (CPI) remained negative at -0.1% for the fourth consecutive month, indicating low inflation[8] Investment and Housing Market - Real estate development investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year in May, worsening from the previous month's decline of 10.3%[3] - The average price of new homes in 70 major cities decreased by 0.22% month-on-month in May, compared to a decline of 0.12% in April[6] - The sales area of commercial housing in early June dropped by 9.4% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing weakness in the housing market[8] Policy Outlook - The government is expected to introduce fiscal support of 0.5-1.0 trillion yuan (approximately 0.35%-0.7% of GDP) by September, given the current economic conditions[1] - A potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points and interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points are anticipated in the second half of the year[1]