流动性与机构行为跟踪：农商止盈长端

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (6.09 - 6.13), the money market rates showed divergence, the average daily net lending of large banks increased, and the fund leverage slightly rose. The maturity of certificates of deposit (CDs) increased, and the yields of CDs at various tenors declined. In terms of cash bond transactions, the main buyers were funds, mainly increasing their holdings of 7 - 10Y and 20 - 30Y interest - rate bonds. Rural commercial banks took profits on long - term bonds, insurance companies increased their holdings of 15 - 30Y ultra - long interest - rate bonds, and large banks continued to buy interest - rate bonds with a tenor of less than 3Y [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - Open Market Operations: This week, there were 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations of 173.8 billion, 198.6 billion, 164 billion, 119.3 billion, and 202.5 billion yuan from Monday to Friday, respectively, with a total of 858.2 billion yuan. The net liquidity withdrawal for the whole week was 72.7 billion yuan. Next Tuesday (6/17), there will be 182 billion yuan of MLF maturing [5][10]. - Funding Rates: As of June 13, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.46%, 1.58%, 1.41%, and 1.5% respectively, changing by 1.43BP, 2.97BP, - 0.02BP, and - 3.03BP compared to June 6, and were at the 19%, 9%, 16%, and 3% historical percentiles respectively [5][15]. - Net Funding of Main Lenders: The net funding of the main lenders (large commercial/policy banks and joint - stock commercial banks) was - 428.3 billion yuan for the whole week (6.09 - 6.13), with the net funding scale decreasing by 87 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5][18]. - Repo Transactions: The trading volume of pledged repos increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.95 trillion yuan and a single - day high of 8.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.98% compared to the previous week's average daily volume. The proportion of overnight repo transactions increased, with an average daily proportion of 89.4% and a single - day high of 91.5%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points compared to the previous week's average daily proportion. As of June 13, it was at the 91.5% percentile [5][27]. - Leverage Ratios: As of June 13, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.4%, 212.7%, 128.2%, and 105.8% respectively, changing by 0.13BP, 10.25BP, 1.12BP, and 0.38BP compared to June 6, and were at the 21%, 45%, 70%, and 50% historical percentile levels respectively [5][32]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - CD Issuance and Maturity: This week, the issuance scale of CDs increased, and the net financing decreased compared to the previous week. The total issuance was 1,039.12 billion yuan, an increase of 453.53 billion yuan compared to the previous week; the total maturity was 1,203.63 billion yuan, an increase of 539.26 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was - 164.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 85.73 billion yuan compared to the previous week [34]. - CD Issuance by Bank Type: Among different bank types, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. This week, the issuance scales of CDs by state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 296.51 billion yuan, 308.9 billion yuan, 356.57 billion yuan, and 71.96 billion yuan respectively, changing by 144.63 billion yuan, 147.34 billion yuan, 133.03 billion yuan, and 27.45 billion yuan compared to the previous week [35]. - CD Issuance by Tenor: In terms of tenor, the 1Y CD had the highest issuance scale. The issuance scales of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y CDs were 30.66 billion yuan, 295.24 billion yuan, 174.35 billion yuan, 183.47 billion yuan, and 355.4 billion yuan respectively, changing by 26.25 billion yuan, 161.71 billion yuan, - 62.29 billion yuan, 94.89 billion yuan, and 232.97 billion yuan compared to the previous week [35]. - CD Issuance Rates: This week, the issuance rates of CDs by different banks and tenors declined. As of June 13, the issuance rates of 1 - year CDs by joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed by - 2.6BP, - 3.67BP, - 1.96BP, and - 8.6BP compared to June 6, and were at the 2%, 3%, 1%, and 1% historical percentile levels respectively [43]. - CD Yields at Maturity: This week, most of the yields of CDs at maturity declined. As of June 13, the yields at maturity of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y AAA - rated commercial bank CDs were 1.63%, 1.64%, 1.64%, 1.67%, and 1.67% respectively, changing by 0.28BP, - 1.95BP, - 1BP, - 0.8BP, and - 0.75BP compared to June 6 [48]. - Bill Rates: This week, bill rates declined. As of June 13, the 3M straight - discount rate, 3M transfer - discount rate, 6M straight - discount rate, and 6M transfer - discount rate of national - share bills were 1.08%, 0.99%, 1.05%, and 1.04% respectively, changing by - 7BP, - 3BP, - 9BP, and - 5BP compared to June 6 [49]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Cash Bond Transactions: This week, the main buyers of cash bonds were funds, with a net purchase of 291.7 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week; the main sellers were city commercial banks, with a net sale of 319.9 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week [54]. - Fund Transactions: This week, funds net - bought 291.7 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 171.4 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 45.2 billion yuan in credit bonds, 44.9 billion yuan in other (including Tier 2 capital bonds), and 29.7 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 7 - 10 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the 1 - 3 - year range [54]. - Wealth Management Transactions: This week, wealth management products net - bought 107.4 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 8.2 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 14.2 billion yuan in credit bonds, 11.9 billion yuan in other (including Tier 2 capital bonds), and 73.1 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased within 1 year, and credit bonds were mainly increased within 1 year [54]. - Rural Financial Institution Transactions: This week, rural financial institutions net - sold 176 billion yuan of cash bonds, including a decrease of 129 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 2.1 billion yuan in credit bonds, an increase of 3 billion yuan in other (including Tier 2 capital bonds), and a decrease of 48.4 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, interest - rate bonds were mainly decreased in the 7 - 10 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly decreased in the 1 - 3 - year range [54]. - Insurance Company Transactions: This week, insurance companies net - bought 69.9 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 29.8 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 6.1 billion yuan in credit bonds, 4.3 billion yuan in other (including Tier 2 capital bonds), and 29.7 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 20 - 30 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the 7 - 10 - year range [55].