有色金属周报：地缘冲突升级，坚守贵金属投资-20250616

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Insights - Precious metals are expected to perform well in the long term, with gold prices rising by 3.74% recently due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran [5]. - Industrial metal prices showed mixed results, with copper and nickel prices declining by 0.2% and 2.2% respectively, while aluminum and lead prices increased by 1.8% and 1.6% [5]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for small metals, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, which saw price increases, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand [5]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, have seen price declines, with lithium carbonate prices dropping, indicating a need to monitor future demand growth in this sector [5]. - The report suggests a favorable investment environment for the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by anticipated monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and supportive domestic fiscal policies [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices are projected to continue rising due to geopolitical instability and a weakening dollar [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Recent price changes include copper at 78,010 CNY/ton (-0.2%), aluminum at 20,440 CNY/ton (+1.8%), and nickel at 119,920 CNY/ton (-2.2%) [28]. 1.3 Small Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide increased by 0.7% week-on-week, reflecting a 22.2% annual increase [30]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased significantly, with lithium carbonate at 5,350 CNY/ton, down 37.6% year-on-year [35]. 2. Market Data - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.79%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.25% [36]. 3. Key Events Review - The report notes a framework agreement reached in U.S.-China trade talks, which may positively influence industrial metal prices [43].