5月经济数据解读：消费回升能持续吗？

Group 1: Economic Overview - In May, industrial production growth slightly decreased to 5.8% year-on-year, primarily due to weakened export activities influenced by tariff fluctuations[12] - Fixed asset investment growth fell to 2.7%, with real estate investment declining by 12%[21] - Retail sales growth increased to 6.4%, indicating enhanced consumer momentum, with service retail sales rising to 5.2%[26] Group 2: Real Estate Market - National real estate sales area growth rate dropped to -3.3%, with a two-year average growth rate narrowing to -12.4%[29] - New housing sales area growth rate continued to decline, while prices for new and second-hand homes showed a narrowing year-on-year decline[30] - Construction area growth rebounded significantly, but new construction area growth remained at -19.3%[30] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumption rebounded due to the combination of trade-in subsidies and increased holiday spending, with inbound tourism transactions increasing by 2.4 times in number and 1.3 times in value[13] - The growth rates for essential and discretionary consumer goods reached 8.2% and 8.5%, respectively, with two-year average growth rates also rising[26] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - External demand is expected to weaken as tariff exemptions expire, potentially impacting production and investment[13] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, indicating a steady employment situation despite economic fluctuations[33]