民生证券-2025年5月经济数据点评：5月经济数据的‘’五大变数”

Economic Overview - In May, industrial output and service sector growth rates were around 6%, indicating a GDP growth rate of over 5% for Q2 is likely[3] - The consumer sector showed stronger performance compared to investment, with retail sales growth reaching 6.5% year-on-year in May, driven by policies like "trade-in" and the early start of the "618" shopping festival[8] Consumption Trends - The "618" shopping festival's early launch and "trade-in" policies significantly boosted retail sales, with a month-on-month increase of 0.93%, the highest in nearly two years[8] - However, potential weaknesses in consumption may emerge as the initial boost from policies fades and some regions adjust or pause subsidies[5] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth slowed to 5.8% in May, with significant declines in non-metallic and chemical manufacturing sectors[9] - Export delivery value growth for large enterprises dropped sharply from 7.7% in March to 0.6% in May, indicating a more significant impact from tariffs compared to small enterprises[5] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment, sales, and construction area all saw year-on-year declines in May, with first-tier city housing prices also falling[10] - The government is responding with new policies aimed at stabilizing the market, including the removal of restrictions in cities like Guangzhou[10] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment growth decreased from 8.2% in April to 7.8% in May, with upstream and midstream sectors showing the most significant declines[9] - High-tech manufacturing is expected to receive support from new policy financial tools to boost investment growth[6] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment growth rates slightly declined in May, with broad infrastructure growth at 9.2% and narrow infrastructure at 5.1% year-on-year[9] - Despite the slowdown, project approvals by the National Development and Reform Commission remain at historically high levels, indicating ongoing construction intentions[6]