2025年下半年宏观经济展望：产业重塑下的宏观剧本

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The biggest surprise in the first half of 2025 was the unpredictability of Trump's policies, leading to a divergence between expectations and actual economic performance[1] - The negative impacts of Trump's policies are expected to gradually manifest in the second half of the year, particularly affecting consumer spending and non-residential investment, which may slow down significantly[2] - The U.S. economy is projected to experience a "stagflation" environment, with inflation remaining high and economic growth slowing down, leading to a downward adjustment of overall growth expectations[31] Group 2: Policy Implications - The fiscal policy, particularly the tax reduction bill, is likely to pass Congress and be signed into law, which could boost economic expectations despite increasing debt burdens[24] - The Federal Reserve has significant policy space and may lower interest rates if signs of an economic soft landing appear, despite currently being inactive[28] - The implementation of domestic demand stabilization measures, such as enhancing the pension system and increasing subsidies, is crucial for achieving annual economic targets[3] Group 3: Asset Performance - In a "stagflation" scenario, gold is considered a viable asset choice, while the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets is declining[2] - If U.S. Treasury bonds face risks, the likelihood of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies increases significantly[2] - The current economic environment suggests that gold may perform well, similar to its historical performance during previous stagflation periods[38]