瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250616

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 16, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends, with those of 1 - 5Y maturities declining by about 0.2 - 1.25bp, 7Y and 30Y maturities rising by 0.10bp and 0.15bp respectively, and the 10Y maturity yield falling by 0.05bp. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.02%, 0.01%, 0.01%, and 0.05% respectively. The central bank shifted to net injection, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rose to around 1.52% and fluctuated [3]. - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the economic data in May was weak. Industrial added - value declined slightly, social retail sales rebounded unexpectedly, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate improved month - on - month. Financial data continued to show a differentiated trend, with government bonds still being the main support for social financing. Affected by the cooling of the real estate market and the replacement of hidden debts, the corporate credit demand weakened. In the trade aspect, the pulling effect of pre - exported goods continued to weaken, and exports declined slightly in May [3]. - Overseas, the US labor market continued to show resilience. The non - farm payrolls data in May was higher than expected, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged. The impact of tariffs on prices had not yet appeared. In May, the CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The market's expectation for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was adjusted to September [3]. - In terms of strategy, currently, China's domestic demand still needs to be boosted, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Coupled with the central bank's second conduct of outright reverse repurchase this month to continuously maintain the balance and looseness of the capital market, treasury bond futures may maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended that investors maintain a certain position. However, recently, the short - end treasury bond futures have been significantly weaker than the long - end, and the market differentiation is relatively serious. As the tax payment period approaches, market sentiment tends to be cautious. The weakening of the short - end and the increase in profit - taking orders may drive the yield to rise slightly in the short term and trigger the risk of a compensatory decline in the long - end. Attention should be paid to the risk of a compensatory decline in the long - end due to the short - term spread correction [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices and Volumes: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 109.015 (up 0.01%), 106.145 (unchanged), 102.466 (up 0.02%), and 120.520 (up 0.05%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 49941 (up 963), 46176 (down 294), 24997 (down 626), and 53995 (up 235) respectively [2]. - Futures Spreads: The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 were - 0.18 (down 0.01), - 0.03 (down 0.03), 0.06 (up 0.00), and 0.12 (up 0.01) respectively. Other spreads also showed different changes [2]. - Futures Positions: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts remained unchanged at 194978, 151398, 117711, and 106182 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL increased by 2198, 1859, 1730, and 665 respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - CTD Bonds: The net prices of some CTD bonds showed different changes, such as 250007.IB (down 0.0222) and 2500802.IB (up 0.0225) [2]. - Active Treasury Bonds: The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 0.40bp, 1.50bp, 0.50bp, 0.35bp, and 0.40bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 6.28bp to 1.3872%, and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 2.09bp to 1.5209%. Shibor overnight decreased by 2.30bp to 1.3880%, and Shibor 7 - day increased by 0.20bp to 1.5100% [2]. - LPR Rates: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - On June 16, the central bank planned to conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 6 months (182 days). The issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase was 242 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 173.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Economic Data - Industrial and Investment Data: In May 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to May was 19.1947 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment remained flat year - on - year. The real estate development investment from January to May was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [2]. - Consumption Data: In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 20.3171 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [2]. - Industrial Added - value Data: In May, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - June 17, 20:30, US May retail sales monthly rate - June 18, 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 (in ten thousand people) [3]