Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-16 10:43Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the short - term market focuses on the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed, and the growth of Canadian rapeseed has entered the "weather - dominated" stage. The arrival of the aquaculture peak season boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the enhanced expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations adds supply pressure. The pattern of strong oil and weak meal is obvious, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, palm oil production areas are in the seasonal production - increasing season, and the high inventory of domestic oil mills restricts the market price. However, the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides cost support for domestic rapeseed oil [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9505 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2671 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 723.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 15.4 Canadian dollars; that of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5094 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 131 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 297 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 323047 lots, up 43390 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 534182 lots, down 31054 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is 31986 lots, down 6155 lots; for rapeseed meal is 27734 lots, up 841 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 26177, down 78 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9530 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9533.75 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 5405.7 yuan/ton, up 64.27 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 220 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 91 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8270 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 8790 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.56 million tons, up 4.32 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume for the current month is 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the current month is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the current month is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 25 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 19.19%, down 4.53 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 12.93 million tons, down 1.37 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.55 million tons, down 0.35 million tons. East China rapeseed oil inventory is 61 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 38.18 million tons, down 0.86 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 7.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 25.2 million tons, up 1.5 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.47 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.29 million tons, down 1.07 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The current - month production of feed is 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons; the current - month production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The current - month social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue is 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.72%, down 0.07 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 21.72%, down 0.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil increases by 1.05 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16%, down 0.56 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 21.4%, down 0.03 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15%, up 2.11 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 15%, up 1.05 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On June 13 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, driven by the rise of soybean oil and international crude oil prices. The most actively traded July rapeseed contract rose 7.20 Canadian dollars to settle at 731 Canadian dollars per ton, and the November contract rose 15 Canadian dollars to settle at 723.20 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The USDA monthly supply - demand report kept the forecast of US soybean ending stocks unchanged. As of the week ending June 8, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Follow - The rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from Myagric on Monday, as well as the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].