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瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250616

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint - Internationally, the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia have improved, with expectations of a recovery in production, which restrains sugar price performance. Domestically, the import window has opened, increasing the later - stage import pressure and pushing sugar prices down. Near the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory - building needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks may recover, which may provide some support for future prices. Later, attention should be paid to the arrival of imports and the boost from summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5667 yuan/ton, with a环比 increase of 3; the main contract position is 370572 hands, with a环比 increase of 2346. The number of warehouse receipts is 28586 sheets, with a环比 decrease of 150; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 48085 hands, with a环比 decrease of 3469. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2]. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4476 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 39; that of Thai sugar is 4498 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 39 [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5835 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6020 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 6130 yuan/ton, unchanged. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5686 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 51; that of Thai sugar is 5715 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 50 [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1407 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 4; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1385 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 4. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 197 yuan/ton, with a环比 increase of 8; that of Thai sugar is 168 yuan/ton, with a环比 increase of 7 [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, with an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, with a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1110.72 million tons, with an increase of 36.01 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 724.46 million tons, with an increase of 124.88 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 386.26 million tons, with a decrease of 88.95 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, with an increase of 9.43 percentage points [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 130000 tons, with an increase of 60000 tons. The total monthly sugar export volume from Brazil is 225.66 million tons, with an increase of 70.4 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, with an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3.9%, with an increase of 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.87%, with a环比 decrease of 0.96; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.88%, with a环比 decrease of 0.94. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.27%, with an increase of 0.31; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.94%, with a环比 decrease of 0.05 [2]. Industry News - In May, the quantity of raw sugar exported from Brazil to China exceeded 500000 tons, and the cumulative amount from January to May reached over 900000 tons [2].