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固定收益市场周观察:临近季末关注机构行为冲击
Orient Securities·2025-06-16 10:43

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Credit Bond Outlook: The recent performance of the credit bond market is better than that of the interest - rate bond market, with narrowing term spreads of various grades and most credit spreads of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds. Although there are potential negatives, the central bank's current supportive attitude makes it difficult to cause significant negative impacts. However, due to the poor liquidity of credit bonds, short - term liquidity disturbances, especially institutional behavior at the end of the quarter, need attention. Short - end coupon strategies are preferred, and long - term ordinary credit bonds should be treated with caution [5][8]. - Convertible Bond Outlook: The style of the convertible bond market has changed recently, with high - price, double - low, and high - rating convertible bonds performing well, while medium - and low - rating and low - price convertible bonds are relatively weak. Since May 12th, the market sentiment has weakened. But in 2025, there are three major unchanged logics in the convertible bond market, and it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [5][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit Bond and Convertible Bond Views - Credit Bonds: The credit bond market outperforms the interest - rate bond market, with narrowing term and credit spreads. Potential negatives include cross - quarter repatriation of wealth management products, peak CD maturities, and tariff policy fluctuations. Due to poor liquidity, short - term liquidity disturbances and institutional behavior at the end of the quarter need attention. Short - end coupon strategies are preferred, and long - term ordinary credit bonds should be carefully considered [5][8]. - Convertible Bonds: The market style has changed, with high - price, double - low, and high - rating convertible bonds performing well. Since May 12th, market sentiment has weakened. Three major logics in 2025 remain unchanged, and it is advisable to reserve positions for right - side adding [5][10]. 3.2 Credit Bond Review - Negative Information Monitoring: There were no bond defaults, overdue payments, or downgrades of corporate or bond ratings during June 9 - 15, 2025, except for several companies announcing major negative events such as lawsuits, regulatory penalties, and debt repayment difficulties [14][15]. - Primary Issuance: The primary issuance volume of credit bonds reached 314.1 billion yuan from June 9 - 15, 2025, with a net financing of 99.6 billion yuan. The total repayment amount was 214.5 billion yuan, a 45% increase from the previous period. Four bonds with a total scale of 3 billion yuan were cancelled or postponed. The issuance costs of medium - and high - grade bonds increased by about 10bp [15][16][18]. - Secondary Trading: Credit bond valuations were flat at the short - end and declined at the long - end. The risk - free rate curve only slightly increased at the long - end. Short - term spreads of various grades widened slightly, mid - term spreads remained flat, and long - term spreads narrowed by 3bp. The turnover rate increased to 2.04%. High - discount bonds were mainly from real - estate companies such as Country Garden, Sunshine City, and Vanke [20][29]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Review - Market Overall Performance: From June 9 - 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, and other major indices mostly declined, except for the ChiNext Index, which rose 0.22%. The leading convertible bonds generally performed weaker than their underlying stocks. The top - rising convertible bonds were Jinling, Jinji, and Haibo Convertible Bonds [33]. - Convertible Bonds Slightly Declined, Defensive Varieties Performed Well: Last week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index declined 0.02%, the parity center increased 0.1% to 96.0 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased 0.5% to 26.5%. The average daily trading volume significantly increased to 69.298 billion yuan. Large - cap, high - rating, and double - low convertible bonds performed well [38].